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Options Expiration Week Transfers Wealth Again! SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

Posted by Aadil on February 19, 2010 at 6:31pm
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on February 19th, 2010 12:36pm Eastern Time Options expiration week was unique in some ways and the same old, same old in others. The manipulation stayed the same, however, volume for an options expiration week has been ridiculously light. That probably helped the manipulation factor even more. The previous 6 weeks saw the markets ripping up and down with intense volume. In fact, on February 5th, 2010, we matched the volume on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), when the markets bottomed in early March 2009. Truly amazing. Yet options expiration today showed us no volume like the previous four days. This enables the markets to be floated higher and not only helps the institutions make money on premiums, and also helped the Federal Reserve with their announcement of the raise in the discount rate. Just think of all those people buying puts on the market over the last few weeks as we fell. Whoops! Leave it to one light volume week to take us higher and close all those put contracts worthless. Who makes that money? Generally, the institutions are the ones selling the options contracts. Once again money goes from the average hard working individuals hands to the institutions. Does it surprise anyone? Add in the extra jolt from the Federal Reserve and just think about all the "average Joe's" that got whipsawed and fleeced. The Federal Reserve came out just after the markets closed yesterday and told the markets the discount rate was moving higher by .25%. The futures were crushed. However, this move was done with extreme care. Notice how the announcement was made with the maximum time until the next days markets would open. By doing this calculated move, they made sure that comments and concerns could be dealt with and the soothing of the markets could take place. Very smart! In addition, the light volume today on this options expiration Friday, would make sure the markets not only would reverse those overnight futures losses, but show gains by the end of the day. Well done Ben Bernanke! Do I agree with this? No, the markets have become so manipulated that it really only pays to be a trader or short term investor. However, knowing the rules can make you a winner. All I can say is this. Learn the rules, learn the game, play the game and profit! Gareth Soloway Chief Market Strategist InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Has President Obama Become A Sell? (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:GS)

Posted by Aadil on February 18, 2010 at 7:17pm
By Nicholas Santiago on February 18th, 2010 12:54pm Eastern Time During many administrations regardless of political party the markets either rally higher or sell off when someone important from the executive branch speaks. Since President Obama's inauguration he has normally appeared on the television at least once a day and often two or three times during trading hours from 9:30 am – 4:00 pm EST. Since March 2009 the market has rallied higher nearly every time the President has spoken. Recently since January 2010 a change in this phenomenon has occurred and the market seems to sell off when he speaks. If you wants to see evidence of this just look at an intra day chart of the SPDR Trust(NYSE:SPY) today at 10:20 am EST this morning. The S&P 500 sold off during his speech and rebounded around 20 minutes later. Could this spell bigger problems ahead for the markets and for the administration? Prior to the current administration President Bush received a cheerful market reception when he spoke during market hours throughout his first term. Then once his approval rating declined during his second term the market seemed to decline every time he spoke during market hours. Ironically, the market seemed to always sell off when his second Treasury Secretary former Goldman Sachs(NYSE:GS) CEO Hank Paulson spoke during market hours. The current Treasury Secretary and former New York Federal Reserve Bank President Tim Geithner seems to receive a mixed reception from the markets when he speaks during market hours. It is interesting to note that when President Bush's approval rating declined so did the stock market. As we all know this decline that was experienced in 2008 was the worst since the 1930's 'Great Depression'. Currently President Obama's approval rating seems to be declining at a rapid rate lately. Remember the old market adage, “As a president approval rating goes so goes the market”. If one just looks at the markets under president Jimmy Carter one could see how this old statement seems to hold a lot of water.
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As Markets Snooze, Money Tree Begins To Shake. (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:WMT), (NYSE:HPQ)

Posted by Aadil on February 18, 2010 at 6:06pm
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on February 18th, 2010 12:35pm Eastern Time The markets continue to be held in check as the dollar stays slightly higher. The general bullish sentiment of late 2009 is back with a flurry as the markets have rallied off the DOW 10,000. While economic news this morning was ugly to say the least, stocks continue to be held in check. Options expiration? Most likely. With big institutions all about controlling stocks and indexes into options expiration to maximize profit, the markets often act strangely. What do I mean? Simply put, as a pure example, if an insitituion sells 1 billion net premium dollars in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) puts at $110.00, you better believe they have a major incentive to keep or get the SPY above $110.00 for options expiration. As long as it closes above, the institution will profit by those put options expirating worthless. Think this does not happen on the markets or on individual stocks? Think again! In any case, the economic data today was ugly. The PPI data came in extremely hot with a jump of 1.4%. This shows us that on the producer level, inflation surged. The key will be to watch the CPI data tomorrow to see if it was at all passed through to the consumer. In addition, jobless claims rose to an unexpected 473,000. Expectations had been for a number below 450,000. Much worse than expected. On the earnings front it was a mixed bag in regards to stock reaction. Yesterday, after the close, Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) reported earnings that beat Wall Streets estimates. Net income rose over 25% as they reported net earnings per share of $0.96. HPQ is higher by .3% today. This morning, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) reported earnings that also beat Wall Street estimates. However, the outlook was dampened slightly. The stock has sold off slightly, down 1.4%. Remember, options expiration is a shady time for the markets when billions if not trillions of dollars are on the line. Be ready next week for a wild time after the stopper on the markets are removed. Gareth Soloway Chief Market Strategist InTheMoneyStocks.com
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a great article

Posted by dentist 007 on February 18, 2010 at 3:40pm
really good stuff from jason leavitt
Options expire this Friday, so let’s take a look at the open-interest on SPY, DIA, QQQQ and IWM to see if they hint at movement the rest of the week. Here’s the theory: the market conspires to cause the most pain, to cause the most number of people to lose the most amount of money. If the market is to accomplish this, what does it need to do this week?

Puts outnumber calls 2.5-to-1.

Call OI is biggest between 107-116 with the 112, 113 and 114 being the 3 most popular strikes.

Put OI is biggest between 100-113 with the OI at 110 and below being most popular.

Since puts far outnumber call, to determine what price would cause the most pain, let’s focus on put OI. Since most of the higher-OI strikes are at 110 and below, the ideal close would be at 110 or above so all these strikes close worthless. But we don’t want to move too far up or else more of the call strikes will be further in money. Bottom line: a slight move up from the current level would cause the most pain and frustration.

DIA (spyoi021510.png

102.81)

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Markets Hibernate As Volume Dries Ahead Of FOMC Minutes, (NASDAQ:QQQQ), (NYSE:UUP), (NYSE:SPY)

Posted by Aadil on February 17, 2010 at 7:17pm
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on February 17th, 2010 1:53pm Eastern Time The markets are hovering slightly higher on the day as they await comments in the FOMC minutes. This will be released at 2pm ET and could have an important impact on the dollar and the markets. In turn, that could cause commodities to move quickly. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) are hovering higher by just .40% while the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQQ) are up by .37%. The markets staged an impressive rally yesterday on light volume as the dollar fell sharply. However, today, the dollar PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is gaining it all back as optimism is taking hold once again on the U.S economy. Watch for the 2pm ET release of the FOMC minutes. If the dollar falls, the markets should move higher. If the dollar inches higher, the markets should fall. Commodities continue to hold the flat line even with a stronger dollar due to the optimism on the worldeconomy. Gareth Soloway Chief Market Strategist InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Market Update: In Motion (NYSE:SPY), (NYSE:DE), (NASDAQ:AAPL), (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Posted by Aadil on February 17, 2010 at 6:45pm
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on February 17th, 2010 12:40pm Eastern Time Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) is shooting higher today on the back of earnings that tripled analysts expectations for the company. The stock hit a high of $58.05 today in the first 10 minutes of trading only to slowly fade into lunch. The stock continues to trade higher by $2.75 or 5% but is underneath its highs of the day by about $3.50. Technically speaking, the stock is short term extended after just a week ago it hit a low of $48.33. Look for consolidation before further upside. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is showing mediocre strength today on the back of the light volume surge yesterday. The dollar is stronger as global fears remain. However, optimism over the U.S economy appears to be showing itself. Oil is flat along with gold today. Technically, the SPY ran into a wall between $110.35 and $110.50 today. Look for this to be a major resistance level in the coming days. After a solid move up over the last few days, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is pulling back. The NASDAQ is still positive, but AAPL remains down about $1.50 or .75%. The stock looks to be taking a break after the solid move higher in the previous few days. It is sitting on the 50ma and just above the 20ma on the daily chart. As long as it holds this level for the next few days, expect AAPL to go higher. Should it fail and come back below those two moving averages, watch out, AAPL could sell back to $190.00 very easily. While the NASDAQ remains positive today, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is very weak. After gapping higher yesterday into the 20ma on the daily chart, AMZN is pulling back. A possible bear flag is in play on the daily chart as well with a first target to the $110.50 gap window. The second target would be a move to a completion of the head and shoulder pattern at $108.00. The overall market is trading on light volume again today. This was the case yesterday. Overall, a flat day is in order after such a large rally yesterday. Gareth Soloway Chief Market Strategist InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Options Expiration Week Could Be Bumpy

Posted by Aadil on February 17, 2010 at 6:44pm
By Nicholas Santiago on February 17th, 2010 12:46pm Eastern Time This week is a holiday shortened trading week and also options expiration on Friday February 19th. During this week it is common to see a lot of whips in the market ahead of options expiration on Friday. Often the stocks that have traded higher in the beginning of the week will reverse lower by the end of the week. Generally, the small contract trader or better known as the 'retail trader' will chase the popular strike price and get shaken out of their position by options expiration. Our suspicion is that the institutional money has computer programs that track the small contracts being purchased on calls or puts as they chase the popular strike price. Once the institutional money has a clear read on a particular stock that is being bought by the little guy the institutional money will move the market away from that strike price. Yesterday many popular stocks such as Potash Corp Sask Inc (NYSE:POT), U.S. Steel Corp(NYSE:X), and Exxon Mobile Corp(NYSE:XOM) were both trading sharply higher and today they have sold off from their gap higher open. This type of action occurs notoriously during the week of options expiration. Use caution during the week of options expiration. It is my belief that the institutional money can move the market to where they need it to be for a few days. Therefore, remain short term into Friday as the market may get bumpy and the moves can be very tricky.
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UK house prices 'to slump as credit crunch returns'

Posted by Aadil on February 17, 2010 at 7:40am
Philip Aldrick, 10:41, Tuesday 16 February 2010 The squeeze on debt will begin to be felt in January next year, when lenders are due to start repaying £319bn borrowed from the Government during the original crisis in 2007 and 2008 a quarter of the UK's entire £1.3 trillion stock of mortgages. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-prices-to-slump-as-credit-crunch-returns-tele-12b4c6207473.html?x=0
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Where Has The Volume Gone?

Posted by Aadil on February 16, 2010 at 9:04pm
By Nicholas Santiago on February 16th, 2010 3:21pm Eastern Time The United States was closed yesterday for the President's Day holiday. Often after a long weekend the markets will have a slight holiday hangover which generally leads to a light volume trading day. Many Asian markets including China are closed for holiday as well. However, Europe was open today and the problems there are far from resolved. After the Greece debt problem finds some resolution the other nations that are in financial turmoil will want the same type of treatment. Today's action could very well be the calm before the storm. Stay tuned as this is options expiration week and volatility should pick up throughout the week. As for today action when the dollar declines and the volume is very light it usually makes for an upside bias(today's rally day). Just look at most rally before and after holiday weekends and you will see how often this scenario plays out.
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