All Posts (10731)

Sort by

It's Still All About The Benjamins

By IntheMoneyStocks on February 16th, 2010 9:35am Eastern Time
The stock index futures are higher leading to a gap higher open. This positive stock market reaction comes as the U.S. Dollar is weaker to start the day. Please remember when the dollar declines most commodity and inflationary stocks will trade higher. The opposite is true when the dollar increases as commodities and inflationary stocks will usually be under pressure.
Read more…
By Nicholas Santiago on February 16th, 2010 10:18am Eastern Time Since mid January the major stock indexes have topped out in the short term and a pullback has been underway. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a high at 10,729 on January 19th, 2010 and made a short term low on February 5th, 2010 at 9,835. During that time many commodity and financial stocks lead the declined sharply. However, it is interesting to point out that since the March 2009 low the market has not had a single 10 percent correction. Since this January 2010 pullback/correction began there are stocks that have been immune to the market pullback. Baidu Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU) is one stock that has made a new 52 week high climbing toward the very popular 500 level. Interesting enough this is options expiration week and this is going to be a popular strike price for most investors going into the Friday February 19th expiration. The Cheesecake Factory(NASDAQ:CAKE) is another stock that is making a new 52 week high this morning. This stock is technically still strong on the daily chart and may trade into the important 25.00 resistance level. Chipotle Mexican Grill(NYSE:CMG) also made another new 52 week high this morning. This stock remains very strong on the charts. However, during the week of options expiration a lot of games can sometimes be played by the institutions. The 110.00 level could be a popular level for this stock as it nears the end of the week. There are also a couple of airline stocks that are making new 52 week highs today. The first is U.S. Airways(NYSE:LCC). Most airlines have been trading higher recently on lower oil prices and a lot of rumors of consolidation in the industry. Southwest Airlines(NYSE:LUV) is also at a new 52 week high. This stock is considered by many as the best run airline in the business as their business model is very different from the legacy carriers. Today the market is very strong trading higher after a long weekend as the U.S. Dollar pulls back. However, some stocks that have made new 52 week highs have been resilient to the recent market conditions and should be watched closely into options expiration on Friday February 19th. Nicholas Santiago Chief market Strategist IntheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…
By Nicholas Santiago on February 16th, 2010 12:47pm Eastern Time Every trader and investor is talking about a correction or a small pullback in the market. Since the January top in the major indexes the market have pulled back about 8 percent into the February 5th low. Now many traders and investors are saying the lows are in and the bull run from March 2009 is about to resume. While it is unknown who will be right or wrong one thing looks certain. The move of the market is directly inverse to the move in the U.S. Dollar. The U.S. Dollar can be tracked or traded to the long side by using the popular Powershares DB US Dollar Index(NYSEUUP). For traders that are looking to track or play the decline of the the dollar can use the opposite ETF call the Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bearish(NYSE:UDN). In late January we pointed out that the U.S. Dollar would hit a strong resistance level on the charts shortly. For those that happened to look at a UUP chart would have noticed that price traded into the weekly 50 moving average. After a long period of trading below this level the initial move into this strong moving average would be important and it has served as a wall of resistance for the dollar to climb. While many traders and investors in the media will point out countless reasons and stories for the market to move in a particular direction it is really all about the dollar. When the dollar declines everything inflationary catches a bid. Just look at the rally in the market in March 2009. This bull run was on the back of the declining dollar plain and simple. For example, one can look at the SPDR Gold Shares(NYSE:GLD) today and see that the GLD is trading higher by 2.40 to 109.45 as the dollar declines. The U.S. Oil Fund(NYSE:USO) is trading higher 1.38 to 37.69 as the dollar retreats. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc(NYSE:CLF) which produces iron ore is another commodity stock that is benefiting from the declining dollar. Everything that is commodity related is catching a strong bid on the falling dollar. When the dollar declines watch the commodity and inflationary stocks. There is a good chance they will be moving higher when the dollar is declining. However, on the flip side when the dollar moves higher traders should beware that commodity and inflationary stocks will decline. Just look at the decline in the Market Vectors- Gold miners(NYSE:GDX) from early December into February 5th, 2010.This proves that the market depends on a declining dollar in order to move higher.
Read more…
GBPUSD posts enters the longest consolidation period since October, remaining in the 150-pip territory of $1.5580-1.5730. UK Jan CPI jumped to 3.5% from 2.9% (vs exp 3.6%. NY Empire manufacturing jumped to 25 from 16, may help sustain risk appetite, but as we mentioned these past few weeks, USDX benefiting from the win-win scenario of gaining from falling equities, improved US data and neutral-negative in times of rising equities. Wednesdays release of the minutes from the Jan Fed meeting will likely boost USDX as they provide more details on the hawkish dissent by Kansas Feds Hoenig. GBPUSD eyes $1.5625 trend support on 4-hr chart, with resistance holding at $1.5745-50. GOLD breaks the Dec 3 trend line at 1105. A NYC close above 1118-1119, takes us to the next target at 1133. But do recall the need to see a WEEKLY CLOSE above these key resistance levels. Ashraf is in the NYC Trading Expo presenting all day so updates will less frequent than usual.
Read more…
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on February 15th, 2010 4:33pm Eastern Time "After last week, my subscribers need to be ready for another wild ride. However, when I see a wild ride coming, I see opportunity! With opportunity comes big profits. So far, 2010 has been the year of the short term swing trade. This has been a perfect environment for Research Center subscribers because it does not take constant intra day monitoring. Great entries appear, know your levels and hop in. Then, enjoy the ride and put your limit sell in for the next day. Sometimes they even hit later that day like TAN did on Friday. Friday, the TAN was alerted as a buy at $8.10. The Hot Charts and Alerts featured it in the morning session. The markets rallied in the afternoon and it ripped to a high of $8.40 - $8.42. At this point a sell alert was issued for those that wanted to take profits. Even as a continuing swing it still looks solid but hey! A profit is a profit and TAN gave us a great one day move. Go Research Center subscribers. Make that money! This comment below is what drives me to be the best at giving market guidance, education and calls. At heart I am a teacher 100X over! The profits and guidance just come over. Giving someone the help to understand how to profit is the most rewarding thing ever. Granted, the profits from trading make it even better!" Thoughts and Comments Gareth Soloway Chief Market Strategist InTheMoneyStocks.com "I used to panic on days like today go long go short stay on the side and do all 3 in the same day and lose the shirt off my back !!!!! Not anymore, blood pressure and stress level greatly reduced in knowing my entry and exit levels no matter what the market does. I have so much more discipline thanks to your videos which not only help to pick winning trades but teaches and it is really starting to pay off. Thank you Dave PS: I'm really starting to get how this markets works and how manipulated it can be..I cannot see how a retail investor can survive without a service like yours." Dave, you made our day as have all the other emails and comments from our large subscriber base. Thank you all! http://www.inthemoneystocks.com/n_rant_and_rave_blog.php
Read more…

SOVEREIGN ALCHEMY WILL FAIL

by Egon von Greyerz – Matterhorn Asset Management When we look at the world economy today, wherever we turn we see a wall of risk. And sadly this is an insurmountable wall with risks that are totally unprecedented in history. There has never before been a potentially catastrophic combination of so many virtually bankrupt major sovereign states (US, UK, Spain, Italy Greece, Japan and many more) and a financial system which is bankrupt but is temporarily kept alive with phoney valuations and unlimited money printing. But governments will soon realise that they are not alchemists who can turn printed paper into gold. The consequences of the global financial crisis are potentially catastrophic. http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/2010/02/11/sovereign-alchemy-will-fail/
Read more…
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on February 13th, 2010 5:38pm Eastern Time This article is meant to be a compilation of market ideas, data, analysis and guidance. It comes from a Chief Market Strategist who considers his mind to be somewhat of a market mental asylum with crazy ideas, thoughts and knowledge all thrown together. Enjoy the journey! The Federal Reserve Slowly Gaining Massive Control Auditing the Federal Reserve? The clamor has been silenced. The last time I heard anything about that was months ago. Slowly, over the last decade, the Federal Reserve has been taking control of the financial markets. How have they been doing this? The Federal Reserve has been shifting the markets into a pure dollar play. Have you all noticed how the markets move opposite the dollar? Every time the dollar ticks higher, the markets move lower and every time the dollar inches down, the markets scream higher. With commodity stocks now making up so much of the indexes, and everyone focused on the global recovery, the dollar is now in total control of the markets. In easier terms, the Federal Reserve now controls the markets as they have control of monetary policy. All of a sudden the printing of money does not seem so bad? Coincidence, I think not! With one swift comment from Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke, he can cause the markets to jump or drop based on how the dollar reacts to his comments. The power is unbelievable. To think, many of you signed up to trade stocks yet find yourselves investing, trading in a market where the stock does not matter, just the dollars movement. Is it deliberate? It may be. With this country facing an uncertain future, it is more than likely obvious to the Federal Reserve they need to try and control the outcome. By controlling the dollar, and with a weaker dollar helping Wall Street, the printing of money seems suddenly good! Hmmm. One begins to wonder if it is all just a rigged game? Think about it. We all know massive amounts of money are being printed, but now when that happens and the dollar falls, Wall Street actually rallies. Down the road when inflation rears its ugly head and the dollar drops sharply...the markets may just rally in a big way. I say that last sentence with a little sarcasm of course. Yes, the markets will rally but nothing works out as planned. Eventually, a dollar that becomes too weak will have the opposite reaction it does now. If the Federal Reserve does not hold the dollar in a strict range, watch for 3,000 - 4,000 on the DOW. They have control of the markets, now can they keep it? A Market Summary From A Technical Perspective Friday February 5th, 2010 After almost four weeks of selling, the markets again sold off sharply as panic hit its peak. Global concerns over Greece and sovereign debt were everywhere. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) hit a low of $104.58 then reversed sharply, closing flat to higher. In addition, oil and gold had a technical collapse and washed out on extremely heavy volume and what is known as capitulation. They then reversed sharply as well. The USO, United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO) flushed to a master level of $34.00 which was a former base pivot back in late September 2009. In addition, the flush on gold, SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) filled a major gap at $102.50. This master pivots and gap fills being hit on a volume flush, signaled a reversal in the commodities. This helped fuel the reversal in the markets. By the close, the SPY stood at $106.66, oil and gold ended near the flat line and there was a technical bottoming tail on many daily charts. Monday February 8th, 2010 After the monster reversal the previous Friday, the markets continued their upward path for the first half of the day. Global concerns still lingered in regards to what exactly the Greece bailout would entail. Just before midday, the markets began to slowly fall and in the last hour of trading the selling accelerated. The markets closed slightly lower. Volume was light however, and the closing levels, technically, put in a solid inside (bullish) flag pattern from the reversal the previous Friday. Tuesday February 9th, 2010 After the mega reversal and capitulation in the markets from the previous Friday and the Monday inside bullish flag day, the markets ripped higher. It was a choppy trading session but by the close, gains were seen across the board. At this point in the week the dollar was beginning to act like a patient going through seizures. The key to the dollar, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) was a topping tail on Friday, February 5th, 2010 which as we discussed, also coincided with the bottoming tail in the markets. While the markets were bouncing higher early in the week, the dollar was falling sharply, jumping wildly and driving the intra day charts to look like an EKG. After all was said and done, a rally and market bounce followed the consolidation day. Commodities had all received a solid bounce. Anything gold, oil, steel or copper seemed to be rallying as some fears over the global debt issues were fading. Stocks like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) had all soared off their recent lows. Wednesday February 10th, 2010 Again, following the market surge the previous day, the markets whipped back and forth, controlled by a dollar that just did not know which way to go. Technically speaking, the topping tail from Friday, February 5th, 2010 and the whippy nature in the following days leads us to believe a near term top is in place on the dollar. However, the control the dollar has over the markets, with the wild swings did not make it easy to trade. A short term dying bull in the dollar does not drop dead easily and the markets paid the price again today. When all was said and done, the markets closed slightly lower. After the previous day rally, this inside small move down was viewed as bullish again. An in spirit of bull flag pause day was in place. Thursday February 11th, 2010 As you can guess, following each pause day since the bottoming tail on February 5th, 2010, the markets had rallied and today was no different. Up, up and away they went after some initial whipsaw on the dollar. Buyers continued to inch into the markets. Up days since the massive volume reversal the previous Friday were filled with more volume than down days. That signals institutions were buying the market and not necessarily selling. That is a short term bullish sign as well. By the close, the markets were positive in a solid way with the SPY closing above a master level at $108.13. $108.00 has been a master level for months now and must be respected. Note, it still needs to be confirmed. Friday February 12th, 2010 After one of the wildest weeks of intra day swings I have seen since possibly late 2008, the markets had one last gasp. China raised their lending rates to curb growth and money flow. The markets took that initially as a major positive for the U.S dollar as globally, a slowing China is negative for everyone. Why would they fly to the dollar? The dollar is still the major safety net and reserve currency of the world. The markets gapped lower and sold hard. At the lows, the DOW was down about 150 points. As the dollar approached the double top and high pivot of the previous Fridays topping tail it started to reverse. The markets slammed high going to gap fill on the SPY. Then sold hard as the dollar bounced. The dollar then sold again and the markets screamed back to the double top...yet the dollar inched higher again. In the final gasp of one of the wildest trading weeks I have seen in a long time, the markets rushed higher in the final 15 minutes of the day to close mixed. The SPY closed above $108.00 at $108.04. This is a positive and also a negative. The positive is the SPY held the master $108.00 for the second day in a row. The negative is you did not confirm the move with a higher close. Overall, the reversal must be looked at as bullish. After being down significantly on the day, the markets were able to close flat. What a week! Market Perspective and Angles For The Coming Week The bottoming tail on the daily market and SPY charts from over a week ago is the tell tale signal to continue to expect extreme choppy slight upside movement. Since that bottoming tail, each day has been a push, pause (bullish consolidation), push. In addition, the hard, early flush on Friday, followed by the impressive rally back to near break even must be viewed as short term bullish as well. The dollar still looks to have made a short term top though expect the wild intra day swings that will cause the market to rip higher and dump hard. Oil and gold have had a solid move higher in the last week off their lows, look for consolidation and a little more short term upside movement. Generally, next week is expected to be much like last. Choppy with minor overall upside. Stocks To Watch After Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) reported spectacular earnings on Tuesday February 9th, the stock ripped higher. With continued bullish sentiment on a possible Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) China pullout, Bidu its getting extended. Look for Bidu to take out the even number of $500.00. Once it pushes through that level, I will begin to expect a pullback. It is possible this will happen next week. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) reported a blow out quarter in the middle of a horrific down trend in the markets. The stock ripped higher initially, but has had trouble maintaining the momentum due to the weakness in the markets and commodities. I expect Exxon Mobil to show strength in the coming week as the chart appears to creating a bottom. In addition, the stock price has fallen from a late November 2009 high of over $76.00 to a recent low below $64.00. The current price is just off those lows at $64.80. As a small cap, I have to start getting extremely interested in Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE:JTX). Here is a stock that is expected to do 220 million in sales for their year ending in early 2011 with $0.50 in EPS. The stock has been crushed recently, dropping from a 2010 high of over $5.00 to a Friday closing price of $2.32. That is a forward P/E of less than 5. Whether the shorts are punishing it or funds are selling, this stock is due for a solid technical bounce. It looks to be a bounce value play at these levels with a possible move back over $3.00 or more. This concludes this weekend mental asylum report from Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway. Join the club and start learnings technical analysis and making profits. See you all at InTheMoneyStocks.com. Gareth Soloway Chief Market Strategist InTheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…

Hedge funds turn on Euro stocks

Global hedge funds have staked millions of dollars against some of Europe's biggest companies amid continuing fears over the strength of the euro.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/template/ver1-0/i/headerBlueBG.gif); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; padding-bottom: 7px; background-position: 0px 2px; background-repeat: repeat no-repeat; ">

A raft of European banks, healthcare companies and property firms have attracted a sudden spike in "short positions" over the past two weeks, according to figures from DataExplorers.

Financial stocks, considered to be in the frontline in the event of a full-blown attack on the euro, have been particularly targeted. Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles (BME), the operator of the financial markets in Spain, is showing a short position worth nearly 7pc of its €1.7bn market value, suggesting that traders are betting nearly €120m that its share price will fall. Spanish banks Banco de Sabadell and Banco de Valencia are also being shorted by hedge funds.

David Carruthers of DataExplorers said: "The Spanish financial firms stand out in the data as being targeted by short sellers. But the same pattern is being followed in other European stocks across the sectors."

Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa, the first Italian bank to be bailed out during the financial crisis last summer, is showing a short position of 5.43pc of its market value, nearly 3pc of which has been placed in the past two weeks, according to the data.

In Germany, the short position in Infineon Technologies, the semiconductor company, has risen more than 6pc to 9.31pc. At Tui, the travel firm, nearly a quarter of the company's value is being shorted.

Experts said that although many of the companies have individual concerns for investors, the fears over the euro have exacerbated them in recent weeks.

Triggered by the Greek debt crisis, the financial strength of Spain, Italy and Ireland has been the focus of widespread market concern, with investors fearing the countries may be unable to repair their balance sheets alone.

Last week it emerged that speculators were betting record amounts against euro futures on the International Monetary Market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a closely-watched barometer.

The huge currency bets were taken as proof that the market is unconvinced that the more solvent European states will back the debts of their relatively strapped neighbours to the south. With fears spreading to corporates too, the wealthier nations, including Britain, will come under increasing pressure to come up with a solution quickly.

The CME figures have sparked fears that, like George Soros in the early 1990s, hedge funds will lay siege to the single currency. Since Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy cannot devalue or inflate their way out of the crisis, economists suspect that they will have to receive assistance from other euro nations to avoid inflicting cuts of unprecedented ferocity on their economies.

Economist Joe Stiglitz, who is advising the Greek government, has denied that the country would require a bail-out, and urged national authorities to intervene in markets to "teach the speculators a lesson".

  • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/template/ver1-0/i/sprite-icon.gif); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; margin-left: 2px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(224, 224, 224); background-position: 10px -1399px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; ">Print
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/template/ver1-0/i/headerBlueBG.gif); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; padding-bottom: 7px; background-position: 0px 2px; background-repeat: repeat no-repeat; ">
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/template/ver1-0/i/sprite-icon.gif); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; padding-left: 20px; height: 16px; background-position: 0px -1350px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; ">
Text Size
click here to increase the text size
click here to decrease the text size
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/template/ver1-0/i/headerBlueBG.gif); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; padding-bottom: 7px; background-position: 0px 2px; background-repeat: repeat no-repeat; ">
Animated Alex
Share price and data
Jeff Randall
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/template/ver1-0/i/headerBlueBG.gif); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); background-position: 0px 2px; background-repeat: repeat no-repeat; ">

MORE ON

Read more…

Government Policies Determined Commodity Price Movements

ONG Focus - Insights Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Feb 13 10 12:31 ET Commodity market was affected by policy uncertainty last week. The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Committee on Financial Services on the central bank's exit strategy. Bernanke expected to consider 'a modest increase in the spread between the discount rate and the target federal funds rate' before long, while reverse repos will be among the foremost tools to drain massive liquidity. http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/insights/weekly-fundamental-outlook-for-energies-and-metals-government-policies-determined-commodity-price-movements-2010021311251/
Read more…