At this rate the only metric to gauge the stock market will be how big the L2 order book is. Any time, any time, there is a pick up in volume, over the past 3 months, the market has dropped. Plain and simple. Consolidation to the downside will be very entertaining.
Chart translation:
volume drops, market surges
volume surges, market drops
volume now dropping, market going up.
And that completes Efficient Market Theory for 2010.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/intraday-volume-update-volume-plunges-market-volume-surge-market-downRead more…
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on April 15th, 2010 5:51pm Eastern Time
GOOG, AMD, ISRG are all trading lower after earnings. The bar is just a little too high it seems after INTC and JPM earnings a couple days ago.
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By Nicholas Santiago on April 15th, 2010 1:16pm Eastern Time
The major indexes have had a huge rally over the past eight weeks since early February. Almost every sector and index of the market has participated in this broad based advance. Some indexes such as the Retail HOLDRs (ETF) (NYSE:RTH), and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF are up over 15 percent since the February 5th, 2010 low. These are huge moves higher in such a short period of time. Many sectors and indexes will not see moves of this size in years let alone weeks. The main point to recognize is that this has been a huge rally in a short period of time.
It is interesting to note that the one sector that has lagged the overall markets has been the agriculture sector. This is unusual to see especially if this market is in a so called economic recovery. In which case wouldn't agriculture lead the markets higher as demand increases?
Lets take a quick look at some of the agriculture stock leaders:
Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) produces and sells fertilizers and feed products worldwide. The stock is known as the leader in its industry group. Potash Inc. (POT) topped out in mid-March at 128.00 a share. Yesterday the stock hit a low at 108.00 which is technical support. Today the stock is bouncing off of the 108.00 support level and a short term oversold condition.
The next major leader in the agriculture space is Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON). This stock topped out in January, 2010 at 87.06. The stock has declined sharply since that time and is currently at a new low for the year at 65.70. This stock should have technical support at 62.50; however, it is very over sold at these levels already and could bounce.
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) is another stock that has not recovered from the January sell off. Mosaic Co. (MOS) topped out around 68.00 and is nearing a short term technical double bottom support level around the 54.00 area. This could be a short term bounce area for the stock.
These leading stocks in the agriculture sector could be due for a short term bounce from an oversold technical condition. However, caution should be used as they have been weak relative to the strength of the market. It is still a concern when the former market leading sector struggles in a bull rally.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.comRead more…
US CRUDE OIL remains capped at the $86.40 trend line resistance extending from the Apr 6 high despite yesterdays $2.60 rally. The failure is in line with the CRBs inability to break above the $280, which is the right shoulder resistance. For more info on the CRB Index see this link http://bit.ly/9G8Wv0 GBPUSD weekly stochastics remain bullish despite the diminishing momentum on the daily chart. Cable 4-hr chart suggests a retreat towards $1.54, but support has lifted to $1.5340. US Housing starts and Canadian manufacturing shipments due tomorrow must be closely watched as a potential boosters for USDCAD, which eyes 1.0030, followed by 1.0080.
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By Gareth Soloway on April 15th, 2010 11:54am Eastern Time
Watch this trendline closely. Should it break, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) could dump quickly. The markets gapped slightly lower and then raced higher to make a new 52 week high. The SPY hit the key $121.55 level, given in the intra day stock chat as a great shorting opportunity. Sure enough, that was the top and the markets have fallen $.50 off their highs on the SPY.
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EURO PULLBACK remains isolated from other currencies as Greek/German yield spread jumps back to 427 bps, up more than 70-bps due to ongoing uncertainties over the agreed-upon 45 bln euro package. We long said there are serious questions about the efficacy of deploying those funds, including 8.5 euro billion from Germany. Euros failure to break above $1.3680 yesterday is giving way to a full-cent sell-off towards $1.3533. Subsequent target stands at $1.3480. OIL remains capped below 86.40 trend line resistance (extending from Apr 6 high).
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http://www.safehaven.com/article/16421/day-traders-20-will-tank-your-irayet-to-be-published study conducted in Taiwan...the authors sifted through tens of millions of trades, from 1992 to 2006, and found that 80 percent of active traders lost money." With that kind of win/loss ratio, it is no wonder that "'only 1 percent could be called predictably profitable,
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By Gareth Soloway on April 14th, 2010 1:46pm Eastern Time
The financial stocks got off to a fantastic start today as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) reported earnings. They beat earnings with ease and the stock responded by shooting higher. The financial stocks took off in sympathy, with Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) all surging to the upside.
The key now is to understand that JPM set the bar extremely high. All the other financial stocks that are surging today now must perform even better on their earnings to get a continued rise higher. This is one of the unique factors most amateur or average investors ignore. They do not factor in the rise in earnings expectations from a report on JPM. Using this method, it leads me to believe that the financial stocks may be getting to a near term top today. I am eying ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE:SKF) closely.
Be ready and understand how JPM has now put the bar at the top, these other financial stocks may have a tough time moving higher in the near term after today.
To learn more, join the Research Center at InTheMoneyStocks.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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USD INDEX enters its 3rd weekly decline, which would be the longest losing streak since October 2009. USDX breaks below the 55-day MA for 1st time since Dec 4th, looking vulnerable for a breach below 79.15. The EU/IMF agreement as well new highs in equities have helped extended USD losses to EUR and GBP. A confirmation of Chinas Q1 GDP figures tonight (after they were leaked to show a 11.9% jump could intensify risk appetite in Asia, unless PBOC reiterates its aim to rein in lending. GBPUSD regains the 55-day MA, with the weekly stochastics suggesting further run-up towards $1.5550. But daily stochastics do not appear as positive, thereby, suggesting a near-term pause in cable. Bernanke did not mention the "low rates" mantra, but higher oil prices following the unexpected draw in crude inventories helped boost stocks and oil.
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