1.5520 serving as res for now - H4 & Daily Bias short - H4 MACD divergence - Daily Bearish Engulfing Bar - I can't see anything that says go long :) looking for retracements on H4 to get short for an H4 swing trade.I will speculate that this is an H&S formation, and that the right shoulder has yet to form, but I will trade the 1st signal regardless of any sholder forming.
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AUD/JPY expanding wedge / megaphone formation worked out perfectly on Friday - shame I only took a few pips out of it! ruddy lightweight :)Looking for longs at some point anyway based on Daily still in up trend. Interesting levels - 85.30 / 84.20 / 83.60 - I fancy this will go lower before heading north again.
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Looks like CAD/JPY is in the buy zone now, but the way it got down to 90.40 concerns me a little - I guess a run to the JPY was caused by the Goldman Sachs news on Friday... Anyway, looking for confirmation to go long now, unless I have missed something?
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GOLD/OIL RATIO & STOCKS RELATIONSHIP. GOLD/OIL CHART http://chart.ly/gnf2h2 On April 7, we warned in the FXStreet Online ITC Conference that each time the GOLD/OIL ratio reaches multimonth lows, any subsequent recovery in the ratio is accompanied by a decline in OIL (oil being the denominator starts to fall), which ALWAYS LEADS to a DECLINE in STOCKS within the subsequent 5-7 days. This is the SAME RATIONALE USED in Chapter 6 of my book http://www.ashraflaidi.com/book/ which shows how multi-year Gold/Oil ratio always led to recession or/and Fed rate cuts. In this case, a recovery in the ratio means rising equities could no longer hold in the face of falling oil. MORE ON SEC's GOLDMAN COMPLAINT in THIS FORUM THREAD http://bit.ly/90aNJ9Read more…
By Gareth Soloway on April 16th, 2010 12:46pm Eastern Time
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) has slammed into a major support level at $118.75. Note the chart below. If this breaks, the SPY will collapse to the daily 20 moving average at $118.25. The market is dropping sharply today on the news that Goldman Sachs Group was charged with civil fraud. This support level on the SPY translates to the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQQ) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA). Watch this closely.
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RISK AVERSION slams commodities as Goldman Sachs drops 10% following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's announcement to charge Goldman Sachs with Fraud in structuring and marketing of collateralized debt obligation tied to subprime mortgages; defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter. The ECB's Jurgen Stark's position against aid for Greece and broad decline in all of the Univ of Michigan's consumer sentiment 5 components deepens the sell-off in commodities, which we warned about through our analysis (these past 6 days) of the CRB's inability to breach above 280. EURUSD nears $1.3460 target, USDCAD subsequent target tands at 1.0220 but oil real suport now stands at $80. Those long USDCAD could look into hedging with shorting AUDCAD.
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By Nicholas Santiago on April 16th, 2010 12:52pm Eastern Time
The financial world was rocked this morning as Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS) was charged with fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The actual details of the charges are really unclear at this stage. However, it is clear that it involved sub-prime loans and hedge fund king John Paulson. When the news involves one of the most famous financial institutions along with one of the most famous hedge fund managers it could be very serious and linger for quite sometime. Many other past Goldman Sachs Group deals could come under the microscope in the near term.
Traders and investors are now wondering if any other financial institutions did any deals similar to Goldman Sachs Group. The other financial giants that could come under scrutiny are J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C). There is an old saying that if you see one cockroach there are usually many more.
The recent rally since the March 2009 low has been lead by the financial stocks. The obvious plan by the government and the Federal Reserve Bank was to save the banks and that would save the system. Today a lot of trust has been lost by many investors and people all over the world. These alleged allegations could effect the entire global economy in the near term.
The push for financial reform is now going to become front and center. It is important to remember since the financial crisis occurred in 2008 there has not been any financial regulatory reform in the financial arena. It is important to remember that every large financial institution was bailed out by the taxpayer via the government TARP program.
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By Gareth Soloway on April 16th, 2010 12:02pm Eastern Time
As the markets tumble today on the back of civil charges of fraud against Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS), there are many other stocks in play that need to be watched. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) broke the key $250.00 level today intra day. Speaking from the point of view of a trader, the cross of this level could be the short term top. As a trader, you must recognize key breaks of even numbers like $250.00 as a flush out point for shorts. It is somewhat of a contrarian point of view, and holds extremely valid. The daily chart of Apple has not touched the 20 moving average since February 25th, 2010. In general, the 20ma is like home base. A stock must come back to refuel every so often. Based on this extension move, Apple may be at the point of a pullback.
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is also in play today. I issued an alert to my premium subscribers of the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat based on the $146.00 level which matched with the late 2009 high. This level remains in play and we are seeing Amazon pull back nicely today.
It seems somewhat forgotten now, but Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) is getting crushed on the back of earnings. The stock is lower by $38.00 or 6.40%.
Overall, the markets are in panic mode. If Goldman Sachs was doing this, many others were as well. The markets have been priced to perfection and volume shows today that institutions are dumping. We have done more volume in the market today on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) than any day in the last few weeks. It is only 12:00pm ET. Truly amazing. Stay tuned for further updates.
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By Gareth Soloway on April 16th, 2010 11:32am Eastern Time
Someone in Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) must have angered the wrong person in the government. For a government that has had baby handling gloves for Wall Street and the financials, they had to know this would shock the markets and send rippling waves everywhere. Goldman Sachs is down 15% on news of fraud. Stocks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) are all down about 5%. The saying goes, if there is one rat, there are many.
This is a huge shock to a market that has been priced to perfection. While a huge shock, I am proud to say I gave the alert to buy the Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs (NYSE:FAZ) yesterday into the close to my premium members of the Intra Day Stock Chat and Research Center, at a price of $11.01. While I had no idea Goldman Sachs was going to be charged with fraud, my analysis showed that following JPMorgan Chase's earnings, there was little to no further upside for the financial stocks. This turned out to be not only true, but a home run.
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GBP is WORST performer of the day on fears of hung parliament after more than 50% of those polled found LDPs Klegg the winner in yesterdays political debate, followed by 29% for Conservatives Cameron and 21% for Labours Brown. Any improvement in LDPs election chances suggests marginalized majority for Tories or Labour, thus reducing chances of passing deficit-reduction policies. There are 2 more debates remaining before the election. Theoretically, the likelihood of a Conservatives/LDP coalition is smaller than that of a Labour/LDP coalition. Thus, with Tories still leading in the opinion polls and LDP gaining in the debates, the difficulty of forming a government would weigh on sterling. Part of the GBP rallies in recent days has been attributed to improved Tory polls. Cables 3-hr chart shows lower highs, suggesting trend line resistance at $1.5485. Could Nick Clegg become increasingly associated with a hung parliament?
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