US JUNE NONFARM PAYROLLS -125K from +433K, Unemp. rate DROPS to 9.5% from 9.7% (vs exp 9.8%), Average Weekly Hours flat at 33.4. Euro continues to rally across the board, eyeing the $1.2660 target (prev IMT), while JPY rebounds to gain versus all currencies (except EUR). USDCAD looks to retest 1.0680 as oil drops below 72.00. 10-yr bond yields unmoved at 2.93%, but a decline below 2.89% will likely see EURUSD regain 1.2630 and 1.2660. STOCK FUTURES UNCERTAIN where to go due to mixed US data. Dow futures rallied to +60 pts before losing all of those gains. Now +8 pts. MARKET CHOPPINESS WILL GROW WORSE into mid morninbg US trading as US approaches long weekend and attention shifts to World Cup Match Brazil-Holland at 14:00 GMT
Read more…
YEN IS THE DAYs WORST PERFORMER, closely followed by the tumbling USD as the combination of stabilization in Asian/European equities and onslaught of negative US data weigh on both currencies. Markets await US June non-farm payrolls expected to decline by 125K(estimates range from -200K to flat). Since census workers are expected to have shown a net loss of about 230k, PRIVATE PAYROLLS are expected to have risen by 105K. June unemployment rate seen at 9.8% from 9.7%. A disappointing number is likely to maintain the sell-off in the USD because the intensity of negative US figures has occurred simultaneously with stabilizing dynamics in the Eurozone. The break above 1.2480 in EURUSD will likely give way to an initial target of $1.2660.
Read more…
THE UNUSUAL SIMULTANEOUS selloff in the US dollar and stocks seems to be in function of tumbling US bond yields as US data continues to disappoint throughout the day. The broad weakness in manufacturing ISM (including the 20-point tumble in the prices paid index to Nov lows), the unexpected 13K rise in jobless claims to 472K, the 30% plunge in May pending home sales, cannot be positive for yields. All these figures are helping to drive 10-yr yields to fresh 3-month lows below 2.90%. The ongoing tumble in yields is unlikely to spare the greenback in the event of a negative surprise in US jobs figures. EURUSD capped at 1.2480, USDJPY eyes 86.80 target, followed by 86.20 in event of Friday NFP selloff. WATCH ASHRAF ON CNBC TODAY 12:25 pm EDT (16:25 PM GMT)
Read more…
E$ short order @ 1.2223 sl @ 1.2315 - 1st target 1.2150, 2nd 1.2050 ish(previous hook, and 138.2 fib extension). H4 inside pin is my trigger barH4 trend down - daily mixed to down I think. Price failed to close above intraday level at 1.2270, and failed at 61.8% fib.1.2150 is a key level on the daily in recent times, so will have to keep a close eye on PA at that level.Lets see how it works out. Good trading :)
