SWISS FRANC vs. GOLD IS HIGHEST PERFORMING currency against gold since June, +9%, followed by JPY and EUR, which are +5.5% and 3.7% against the yellow metal. CHF was the best performing currency in June after the Swiss National Bank is widely perceived to back off its sporadic interventions, as these have shifted from being an act of stabilization to catching a falling EURCHF knife. The francs safe haven allure has not only gained from outgoing Spanish and Greece funds, but also from Baltic and Eastern European investors. USDCHF has fallen for FIVE consecutive weeks, the longest since Q1 2008. 1.04 appears as a medium term support, but downside remains intact as no major event risks emerge against risk appetite. ASHRAF will be on CNBC-US Squawk at 7:30 EDT (11:30 GMT)
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Ashraf's BNN interview earlier today discussing the US data, EURUSD, RBA and even the World Cup http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip321558 . More broad weakness for GBP after those UK PMI figures, as cable eyes $1.5030 for later in week.
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GBP struggles on disappointing data as UK June services PMI slipped to 54.4 from 55.4, hitting a 10-month low. While the prices component remain robust, GBPUSD looking shaky in 4-hour charts, looking to test $1.5030 from current $1.5150 as market volumes fizzle out into the US holiday session. Yet, the pair must breach below $1.49 in order for the 6-week uptrend to be neutralized. USDCAD still unable to regain 1.0680, which will likely remain a considerable barrier ahead of Fridays Canadian job figures.
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By InTheMoneyStocks.com on July 4th, 2010 6:42pm Eastern Time
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) lost 4.85 for the week ending July 2nd, 2010. This is a decline of nearly 400 points on the actual Dow Jones Industrial Average index. It is safe to say the trend is down as it has been a violent decline since the April high. Many traders and investors are now looking at the head and shoulders top pattern that has now triggered. The measurement of that pattern should it play out to fruition will be a decline into the $84.00 - $85.00 area. That means that there is another 1000 points to go in order to satisfy this downside target on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. Often when indexes or stock have such large targets they generally do not play out so quickly and will find support levels for bounces. Currently the DIA will have support around the $96.00 area. The next important support level for the DIA would be the $92.00 area. While the major market indexes look to be falling apart rarely will it occur when everyone is expecting it. Next week is going to be a critical time for the markets. This should be a summer to remember as major patterns and price levels are now in play.
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STOCKS DEEPEN IN THE RED during NY Lunch, prompting USD higher, but USDCAD still seen capped at 1.0680, while EURUSD remains unable to regain 1.2660, now facing support at 1.2480. We're not giving up on the $1.2660 target. HOLLAND SENDS BRAZIL to ROBBEN ISLAND as the "Holland Oranje" come back from a 1-0 deficit to score twice in the first quarter final of the WorldCup. After two consecutive WCup defeats against Brazil (1994 and 1998), Holland finally gives the Samba Boys to think aboutuntil the 2014 WorldCup, which will be held in Brazil. Holland maintains its UNBEATEN RUN since their last defeat on September 2008. And yes, this was the SOLUTION TO THE 2-WEEK OLD RIDDLE. England has not lost since Sep 2008, the same month when Lehman Bros was dissolved. Facing the winner of Ghana-Uruguay, the Dutch can almost taste the final. Holland was a loser in 2 consecutive WCup Finals (1974 vs. W. Germany and 1978 vs. Argentina). The only other nation in modern times to lose in 2 consecutive WCup finals was W.Germany (1982 vs. Italy and 1986 vs. Argentina).
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By Nicholas Santiago on July 2nd, 2010 10:01am Eastern Time
This morning the non-farm payroll report was released and it was not a good report. However, it looks as if the market had already priced the poor job number into the cake. Therefore, as long as the job number was not a shocking disappointment it may just be a “sell the rumor buy the news event”. The real test for the market today will be at the close of the day. Does the market sell off at the end of the trading session before the long holiday weekend? Should the market close flat to positive this could be considered a small victory for the major indexes.
Many stocks in different sectors are trading slightly higher at the open. The weak U.S. Dollar Index is helping to inflate the markets higher. However, yesterday the market indexes still traded lower as the dollar declined. This is a sign of deflation which is very strong when it grabs hold. So far leading commodity stocks such as Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF), Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX), and Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN) are all positive to start the day. Should these leading stocks reverse the markets indexes are likely to decline as well.
Follow the leaders and everything else will fall into place. Right now there is no secret that the markets are walking on fragile ground. One rule of thumb that traders and investors should follow is if Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) hold up, the market is likely to hold up. If these two leading stocks fall the markets will likely decline as well.
By Nicholas Santiago on July 2nd, 2010 10:57am Eastern Time
Since June 21st the markets have struggled, dropping about 10 percent. The prior week the markets rallied into options expiration week. This was not a surprise as the institutional money will rarely let the small retail options trader collect into expiration. Just think how many people, mainly small retail traders bought puts on the market in early June. In any case these markets are now on very shaky ground. Many traders and investors are pricing in Armageddon at this time; regardless if this should occur, the transport index holds some important clues. Today the transports are trading lower by 44.00 points even as the major indexes are basically flat. Many traders and investors are waiting to see if the transports will take out and close below the June 8th pivot low. Some traders and investors have already stated that a Dow Theory Sell signal has already triggered. However, the transports never closed below the June 8th pivot low at 3983. Should the market close below this point it would likely create a new flood of bearish investors.
This morning FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX) is trading lower by 0.46 to $71.55. FedEx Corp is a leading global air and ground shipping company. This stock bounced off the important $70.00 support level. Should FedEx Corp break this level the stock could find support around the $66.00 area.
Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE:NSC) is a leading railroad stock that is trading lower by 0.81 to $51.90. The stock will have some minor daily support soon around the $51.50 area. Should that level fail to hold then the $50.00 level will be the next support area.
Delta Airlines Inc (NYSE:DAL) is trading lower by 0.27 to $11.45. The stock actually has minor support at the current price. Should the stock decline the $11.00 is a very important support level. Should that level fail to hold it could trigger a bearish 'head and shoulders' top pattern. This level must be watched extremely closely.
Right now the transport sector is very important to follow. Many traders and investors will use the transport sector as a lead dance partner. Remember, when the transport sector declines it is a sign of contraction in the economy. If the transport sector bounces or trades higher the market will and should live to fight another day in a very weak economy.
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