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Tyler Durden:Frontrunning Dec 20,2010

  • Debt Pyramid Scheme Now the Norm in America (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage-Bond Math Means Everyone Is a Winner (Bloomberg)
  • Congressman Paul Says Fed Transparency is His Goal (Reuters)
  • Drama needed to jolt Americans into tackling debt (FT) good luck
  • The Chinese are playing grandmaster chess against an amateur America that can’t see beyond the second move (Weekly Standard)
  • Soros Gold Bubble at $1,384 as Miners Push Buttons (Bloomberg)
  • The Case Against Floating Currencies (WSJ)
  • Video: 60min on the Muni Crisis with Meredith Whitney  (Mark's Market Analysis)
  • ECB Raises Fears Over Irish Rescue Deal (FT)
  • China Eyes to Curb Excessive Growth in Land Price (China Daily), but preferrably without taking any action whatsoever: hint - soft landing
  • Derivatives Rules Raise Concerns in China's Nascent Swap Market (Bloomberg)
  • BOE Forecast to Raise Interest Rate Within Six Months, CBI Says (Bloomberg)
  • Congress seeks government funding through March 4 (Reuters)

Economic Highlights:

  • Baltic Dry drops 2.2% to 1,955
  • Euro-Zone Current Account nsa for October-2.3B Previous -9.2B Revised -8.5B
  • ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA for October -9.8B Previous -13.1B Revised -9.7B
  • Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence for December Consensus -9.0 Previous -9.4
  • Germany Producer Prices for November 0.2% m/m 4.4% y/y lower than expected Consensus 0.3% m/m 4.5% y/y Previous 0.4% m/m 4.3% y/y
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This press release by Bank of America provoked the following two tweets out of @wikileas' twitter account:

Wiki%20tweet%201.jpg

Wiki%20tweet%202.jpg

Obviously it is the conditional "safer" keyword that will get everyone's attention. Especially since it is now known that Wikileaks will release it bank data trove as soon as January.

In retaliation to BofA's provocation, it appears that Assange just fired the preliminary shot in the massive run on Bank of America... and possible soon other US banks?

 

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In graphics:Eurozone in crisis

image showing national debt as a percentage. The UK is 68.1, Germany 73.2, Greece 115.1, Spain 53.2, France 77.6 and Ireland 64.

Click on a heading to sort by that measure
Total debt
(% GDP)
Total debt
(€ m)
2009 deficit
(% GDP)
Italy115.81,760,7655.3
Greece115.1273,40713.6
Belgium96.7326,6066.0
France77.61,489,0257.5
Portugal76.8125,9109.4
Germany73.21,762,2113.3
Malta69.13,9483.8
UK68.11,067,81911.5
Austria66.5184,1053.4
Ireland64104,66714.3
Netherlands60.9347,0215.3
Cyprus56.29,5276.1
Spain53.2559,65011.2
Finland4475,2172.2
Slovenia35.912,5195.5
Slovakia35.722,5856.8
Luxembourg14.55,4640.7

One of the main causes of the currency crisis in the eurozone is that virtually all countries involved have breached their own self-imposed rules.

Under the convergence criteria adopted as part of economic and monetary union, government debt must not exceed 60% of GDP at the end of the fiscal year. Likewise, the annual government deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. However, as the maps show, only two of the 16 eurozone countries - Luxembourg and Finland - have managed to stick to both rules.

Overall, Greece is the worst offender, with debt at 115.1% of GDP and a deficit of 13.6% of GDP. But among the bigger economies, Italy's debt is even higher than Greece's as a percentage of GDP, while Spain's deficit is 11.2% of GDP. If the UK were in the eurozone, it would also fall foul of the criteria, with its debt now standing at 68.1% of GDP and its deficit at 11.5% of GDP.

image showing government deficit as a percentage. The UK is 11.5, Germany 3.3, Greece 13.6, Spain 11.2, France 7.5 and Ireland 14.3.
Click on a heading to sort by that measure
Total debt
(% GDP)
Total debt
(€ m)
2009 deficit
(% GDP)
Italy115.81,760,7655.3
Greece115.1273,40713.6
Belgium96.7326,6066.0
France77.61,489,0257.5
Portugal76.8125,9109.4
Germany73.21,762,2113.3
Malta69.13,9483.8
UK68.11,067,81911.5
Austria66.5184,1053.4
Ireland64104,66714.3
Netherlands60.9347,0215.3
Cyprus56.29,5276.1
Spain53.2559,65011.2
Finland4475,2172.2
Slovenia35.912,5195.5
Slovakia35.722,5856.8
Luxembourg14.55,4640.7

One of the main causes of the currency crisis in the eurozone is that virtually all countries involved have breached their own self-imposed rules.

Under the convergence criteria adopted as part of economic and monetary union, government debt must not exceed 60% of GDP at the end of the fiscal year. Likewise, the annual government deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. However, as the maps show, only two of the 16 eurozone countries - Luxembourg and Finland - have managed to stick to both rules.

Overall, Greece is the worst offender, with debt at 115.1% of GDP and a deficit of 13.6% of GDP. But among the bigger economies, Italy's debt is even higher than Greece's as a percentage of GDP, while Spain's deficit is 11.2% of GDP. If the UK were in the eurozone, it would also fall foul of the criteria, with its debt now standing at 68.1% of GDP and its deficit at 11.5% of GDP.

 

For more Graphics,Please follow this link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10150007

 

 

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WHEN WILL BONDS BOTTOM?

19 DECEMBER 2010 By Decision Point

Bonds are in a “waterfall” decline, and some people are beginning to wonder where the bottom will be. A subscriber comments: “I’m always anxious to see the reaction time of the DP Trend Model as compared to what I look for in the momentum of the primary trend. You’re doing a fine job with equities explaining what you see when you look at the other indicators and would love to see you give a little more attention to the bonds. I’d be able to follow what indicators you use to evaluate the oversold point in this waterfall. Yes, I’m aware of the falling knife adage and would not go long but rather stop being short. Perhaps go short after the relief rally. Depends on where the dollar is in it’s move as well.”

To begin let’s estimate overbought/oversold conditions. Below are two charts that show the daily and weekly PMO in relation to their 30-year ranges. The daily PMO (on the left) is clearly at the bottom of its normal range and is oversold. It still has room to go lower, much, much lower, but it would be reasonable to start looking for a price bottom. The weekly PMO, however, has topped in overbought territory and has plenty of room to go downward before it becomes oversold. Conclusion: A medium-term bounce is possible, but the longer-term decline has a long way to go.

Chart

Next, let’s take a look at the daily chart, which is where we get the best view of the Trend Model components — the 20-EMA and 50-EMA. The model will generate a buy signal when there is a 20/50-EMA upside crossover, and I can tell you that, while price will probably turn on a dime, the Trend Model will not. It is going to take a lot of upside movement to get the model to turn when the down trend is this accelerated.

Chart

The model is currently in neutral, so we don’t have to worry about being short and getting caught in a vicious upside reversal, but for those who are short, the problem is when to cover shorts, not when to go long. Two possible signals that could be used are (1) when the PMO turns up, or (2) when the steepest declining tops line is penetrated to the upside.

As I said, the Trend Model will be slower to generate a buy signal than some people will like. For those managing positions in the short term, two possible buy signals are (1) the PMO crossing up through its EMA, or (2) the 5-EMA crossing up through the 20-EMA. The 5/20-EMA relationship is something we are going to be paying closer attention to in the future, so let’s take a look at a short-term chart.

Chart

The movement of the 5-EMA can provide a clear picture when the PMO is presenting a fuzzy one. Note how it remained above the 20-EMA during the June/July/August period, while at the same time the PMO was inscrutable. PMO signals during that time were not helpful at best, but the 5-EMA said “stay long”.

As for a 5/20-EMA buy signal for bonds, the amount of separation between the moving averages tells us that it will still take a lot of rally before it happens, so it won’t be the most timely of signals. This is always a byproduct of steep declines.

The weekly chart shows long-term support on the rising trend line drawn from the 2007 lows.

Chart

But the monthly chart shows the very long-term support on the rising trend line, as well as the potential downside if that support is broken.

Chart

Bottom Line: Bonds are in a long-term bear market based upon the fact that the 50-EMA is below the 200-EMA. The current steep decline is subject to being reversed rather abruptly, so shorts should have a plan to cover quickly; however, I don’t think that the long-term decline is over, and I wouldn’t be anxious to be long on other than a short-term basis.

 

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The key to the M-A pattern is to see the formation and recognize what makes it in play and what negates it. This M-A pattern played out for the prime reason that key rules were never broken. We will unveil this to you all so in the future you may profit off this pattern. The M-A pattern is a classic bearish pattern that signals downside. Knowing this would have told you that the markets were going to fall today. The first key comes in the form of the right side of the M pattern. Note how the left high of the M was at $110.13 on the SPY. Then please take note that the right side of the M pattern was at $110.34. The first rule to an M-A pattern is that the right side of the M should be higher than the left. This clearly is the case and tells any market technician that this could be an M-A pattern in play. Next, please note that as the rally happens and the upswing of the A forms, the high of that A cannot take out the right or left side of the M pattern. In addition, note that the upswing of the A never takes out the big red down candle on the 60 minute candle. Therefore, that entire upswing is considered inside candles do the big red down candle. This means that it is still categorized as an in spirit of bear flag. Because all these keys were in place, this M-A pattern had a high probability of working out. Sure enough, as the master level was hit, the A pattern drop occurred and the market sold hard. Learn these patterns, make the money!

#1. Note the right side of the M is higher than the left.

 

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