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With an Ice Age comes abrupt change, and with change comes death—sometimes death on a massive scale.
More of the world's top scientists in the disciplines of geology, ecology, meteorology, astrophysics, and heliology [Down loadable list] are predicting that the two major cooling cycles are converging—theshort term and long term Ice Ages—and Earth has just entered thebeginnings of the dangerous cooling.
Both cooling periods are due and both seem to have started just as the sun's about to reach its solar maximum. When the sun goes quiet after2012, it's expected to stay quiet for at least the next 30 to 50 years.During that time, the sun will generate significantly less heat and theplanets—including Earth—will cool rapidly.
Mass migrations and famines:Now other scientists—including John L. Casey, the Director of the Space and Science Research Center—are warning that people in the comingdecades are facing food and fuel shortages.
Some northerncountries will be abandoned as the ice marches down from the Arctic;energy production will be interrupted; and shortened growing periods inthe Northern Hemisphere will precipitate mass migrations, famines, foodriots, regional conflicts and a loss of human life that could bemeasured on an apocalyptic scale.
Imminent crop damage was forecast back in 2007 and predicted to start by 2010.
Right on schedule the damage has been occurring as cold has gripped the Northern Hemisphere as far south as Cuba and southern Italy.
Duringthe next 30 months the world's temperatures are predicted to drop evenmore dramatically and at a faster clip than the worldwide plungerecorded during 2007 to 2008.
Sun entering an extended "hibernation period"
According to Casey, “The Earth typically makes adjustments in major temperature spikes within two to three years. In this case as we cooldown from El Nino, we are dealing with the combined effects of thisplanetary thermodynamic normalization and the influence of the morepowerful underlying global temperature downturn brought on by the solarhibernation. Both forces will present the first opportunity since theperiod of Sun-caused global warmingperiod ended to witness obvious harmful agricultural impacts of the newcold climate. Analysis shows that food and crop derived fuel will forthe first time, become threatened in the next two and a half years.Though the SSRC does not get involved with short term weatherprediction, it would not be unusual to see these ill-effects this year much less within the next 30 months.”
Other scientists concur and some see the speed at which the temperatures will drop as frightening.
Casy's organization has been at the forefront of the climate change controversy, correctly predicting in advance three important changes inthe climate that many others missed: the end of global warming cycle(1999), a long term drop in the Earth’s temperatures (starting in 2006to 2007) the unsettling prospect of an historic contraction of the Sun’senergy resulting in a never-before-seen solar hibernation. Thehibernation is now recognized by NASA's Long Range Solar Forecast through 2022 and as well as the stunning slowdown of sun's activity.
Atthe urging of colleagues from around the globe that concur with him,Casey has taken an unprecedented step. "In view of the importance ofthis new forecast I have notified the Secretary of Agriculture to takeimmediate actions to prepare the nation’s agricultural industry for thecoming crop damage.”
Mini or major Ice Age - either are a disaster:
While Casey sees a so-called mini-Ice Age occurring and lasting about 40 to 50 years,others like Robert Felix believes the data is there that supports a realpossibility of a major Ice Age that could last several thousands ofyears. Felix believes the Earth's already entered the first stages ofthe mini-Ice Age and a bigger one might be close on its heels.
Felixwarns: " The next Ice Age could begin any day. Next week, next month,next year...it's not a question of if, only when. One day you'll wakeup—or you won't wake up, rather—buried beneath nine stories of snow.It's all part of a dependable, predictable cycle, a natural cycle thatreturns like clockwork every 11,500 years."
The last Ice Age happened to end almost exactly 11,500 years ago.
Caseyexplains that "The present [solar] hibernation is proceeding in almostlock step as the last one which occurred from 1793 to 1830. If itcontinues on present course, while the cold weather impacts on food andfuel announced today are certainly important, they do not compare withwhat is to follow later. At the bottom of the cold cycle of thishibernation in the late 2020’s and 2030’s there will likely be yearswith devastating to total crop losses in the Canadian and northern USgrain regions.”
A scientific paper that presents his model, "The Theory of Relational Cycles of Solar Activity" (also called the "RC Theory"), is gaining followers in the scientific community.
Perhaps that's because of the fact that of his three predictions based on the RC Theory climate model, all three are occurring.
For more Info and a great source:
http://www.helium.com/items/2051424-food-and-fuel-shortages-imminent-as-new-ice-age-dawns?page=2As the issuer of the world's reserve currency, the US government hasenjoyed the benefits of low interest rates despite its inflationarypractices. When we run a trade deficit with a country like China, theyhave a strong incentive to 'recycle' the deficit back into our dollarsand Treasuries. This practice has hidden what would otherwise be muchhigher borrowing costs and much lower purchasing power for the dollar.This artificial price signal allows people like Paul Krugman to claimthat the Obama Administration's stimulus programs should be muchlarger. Because our yawning fiscal deficits have not driven bondyields significantly higher, he sees no reason to curtail spending.Krugman wants to spend like its World War III, and then has the nerveto call those worried about the budget mindless zombies!
Krugman is just one partisan Democrat shouting at mirrors, but the misunderstanding has struck theright-wing as well. Last week, in a debate with me on CNBC's TheKudlow Report, Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist of First Trust Advisorsand writer for The American Spectator, claimed that our $9.3 trillionnational debt is of little consequence because our GDP is a fargreater. However, he failed to note that our $14.7 trillion of GDPonly yields about $2.2 trillion in revenue for the Treasury. To fullyaccess that entire GDP, the government would have to raise all taxbrackets to 100% without producing any reduction in output or decreasein revenue. This is, of course, preposterous. As was demonstrated inthe 1970s, even small increases in marginal tax rates have asubstantial negative impact on output. A healthier appraisal wouldcenter on the fact that our publicly traded debt is now 422% of ourannual tax revenue.
Wesbury did mention that if the government could not raise revenue to pay off the bonds, it could simply monetizethe debt with few significant consequences. Apparently, paying backone's creditors in worthless paper is not technically "default" to aneconomist.
So neither Krugman nor Wesbury, both intelligent, highly educated economists, see our current courseleading to imminent crisis. Unfortunately, both have been led astrayby the low debt service ratio which has masked our economy'sunderlying insolvency. To see through the haze, you have to look atthe numbers behind this so-called "deleveraging consumer" and thenlook at the debt of the nation.
The data point most utilized by those who espouse the idea of a healthy consumer is the household debt serviceratio (DSR), a metric that relates debt payments to disposablepersonal income. This figure peaked at 13.96% in the third quarter of2007; it has since dropped by 15%, to 11.89%. It is hard to see thisas a significant amount of deleveraging, especially when looking atlonger term trends. But it gets worse! Most of that modest decline issimply a function of lower interest rates, which have made debt easierto bear. Total household debt has gone down much less. This figurepeaked at $13.92 trillion in Q1 2008, and has since declined only 3.5%to $13.42 trillion. How's that for deleveraging?!
It's also worth noting that back in the first quarter of 2008, most homeowners were sitting on a pile of homeequity to offset that debt. Today, most of the equity has vanished,yet the debt still remains.
When looking at the national debt, the situation is even more depressing. At the end of 2006, total debt heldby the public was $4.9 trillion. According to the Treasury Department,the average interest rate paid on that debt was 4.9%. Therefore, theannualized interest payment at that time was $240 billion. At the endof 2010, our publicly traded debt has increased to $9.3 trillion, butthe average interest rate on that debt has plummeted to just 2.3%. So,despite an 87% increase in debt in just a 4-year time span, theannualized debt service payment actually fell 11% to $213 billion.Krugman and Wesbury look at this and see progress.
Meanwhile, the average maturity on our debt has declined to 5.5 years. Compare that with the UK's gilts, whichaverage about 14 years, or even to Greece's bonds, which average about8 years. Falling interest rates and reduced durations have merelygiven the illusion of solvency to the US as compared to these otherailing sovereigns.
By 2015, our publicly traded debt is projected to be at least $15 trillion. Even if interest rates simplyrevert to their average level - not a stretch, given surging commodityprices and endless Fed money printing - the debt service expense couldeasily reach over $1 trillion, or about 50% of all federal revenuecollected today. Just imagine what would happen if rates were to riseto the level of Greece, nearly 12% on a 10-year note, as opposed toour current 10-year yield of just 3.5%. I bet Athens, Georgia wouldn'tlook much better than its namesake. Don't forget: as interest ratesrise, GDP growth slows, sending the debt-to-GDP ratio even higher.
Earlier this year, it wasn't the nominal level of debt that suddenly sent euroland into insolvency, but rathera spike in debt service payments. Right now, the US national debt isthe biggest subprime ARM of all time. Much like homeowners who thoughtthey could afford a mortgage that was 10 times their annual incomes,Messrs. Krugman and Wesbury are blinded by deceptively low currentrates of interest. These ostriches won't poke their heads up to seethe writing on the wall: low rates and quantitative easing cannotcoexist for long. As rates continue to rise, the reality of USinsolvency will be revealed.
Michael Pento is SeniorEconomist and Vice President of Managed Products at Euro Pacific capital,Inc.The bailouts to Greece and Ireland solved nothing.Spain and Portugal are up next.The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is still simmering.Country by country,spreads to German debt are at or near
record levels.
Chart follow snips from German Bonds Climb in 2010 as Fiscal Crisis Roils Euro Area
German bunds climbed in 2010,the best performance since 2008,as the fiscal crisis that roiled the euro area’s most-indebted nations drove investors to the safest
fixed-income assets in the region.
Top-rated euro-denominated securities from Austria,Germany,the
Netherlands,Finland and France led gains in 2010,while the debt of
Greece and Ireland,which sought bailouts this year,had the biggest
losses among 26 markets tracked by Bloomberg and the European
Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.
German bonds returned a profit of almost 6 percent this year,
according to the Bloomberg/EFFAS data, compared with a 20 percent
loss on Greek debt, a 14 percent slump in Irish securities and an 8
percent decline for Portuguese securities. Spanish and Italian bonds
also made a loss as investors demanded increasing yields to own the
debt of the euro area’s high-deficit nations.
As borrowing costs climbed again amid a wave of sovereign downgrades
that saw Greek debt cut to non-investment grade at Moody’s Investors
Service and Standard & Poor’s,Ireland opted on Nov. 28 to follow
Greece, accepting an 85 billion-euro bailout.That,too, failed to
prevent the spread of the debt crisis, fueling investor concern that
Europe’s stronger nations may be unwilling or unable to foot the
cost of future rescues.
The extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year government
bonds instead of German bunds, Europe's benchmark government
securities, surged to a euro-era record of 973 basis points on May
7, and was at 953 basis points today. It started the year at 239
basis points. The difference in yield, or spread, between German
bonds and 10-year debt from Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy also
reached euro-era records.
Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Greece Sovereign Debt Yields | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, Mike 'Mish' Shedlock Dec31,2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Rare earth elements are used in iPhones,iPads,hybrid-electric cars, wind turbines, flat-panel monitors, tiny magnets in the fins of bombs, missiles,laser-guided smart bombs,and a myriad of other industrial applications.
China cut exports last summer,then totally blocked exports to Japan
last September in a border dispute with Japan and now has reduced
export quotas again by 35 percent.
There is growing concern about this problem at the Pentagon and by
manufacturers for obvious reasons.Please consider
China's rare earths export cut spurs trade concerns
China's move to slash export quotas on rare earth minerals -- vital in a slew of high-tech products -- has raised fresh international trade concerns, and Japan's Sony Corp
vowed on Wednesday to reduce its reliance on the minerals.
China, which produces about 97 percent of the global supply of rare
earth minerals, cut its export quotas by 35 percent for the first
half of 2011 versus a year ago, saying it wanted to preserve ample
reserves. It also cautioned that it has not decided on the quotas
for the second half of the year.
The little-known class of 17 related elements is used in numerous
electronic devices and clean energy technology.
Sony, maker of Bravia brand flat TVs, Vaio PCs and the PlayStation 3
videogame console, will look for ways to cut its use of rare earth
elements, including developing alternative materials, Iguchi said.
Prices have surged for these minerals since authorities in Beijing
slashed their rare earth exports by 40 percent this summer, saying
China needed them for its economic development.
Crackdown on Illegal Mines
It's not that rare earth elements are that rare, but supply of the
metals is limited because of production concerns, especially
pollution. Unauthorized mining operations account for as much as 50%
of China's rare earth exports, leaving sulfuric-acid poisoned streams
and land in the wake. Over such concerns
Illegal Rare Earth Mines Face Crackdown
China’s national and provincial governments [have started] to crack down on the illegal mines, to which local authorities have long turned a blind eye. The efforts
coincide with a decision by Beijing to reduce legal exports as well,
including an announcement by China’s commerce ministry on Tuesday
that export quotas for all rare earth metals will be 35 percent
lower in the early months of next year than in the first half of
this year.
Rogue operations in southern China produce an estimated half of the
world’s supply of heavy rare earths, which are the most valuable
kinds of rare earth metals. Heavy rare earths are increasingly vital
to the global manufacture of a range of high-technology products —
including iPhones, BlackBerrys, flat-panel televisions, lasers,
hybrid cars and wind-power turbines, as well as a lot of military
hardware.
China mines 99 percent of the global supply of heavy rare earths,
with legal, state-owned mines mainly accounting for the rest of
China’s output. That means the Chinese government’s only effective
competitors in producing these valuable commodities are the crime
rings within the country’s borders.
Prices have soared for rare earth elements mined almost exclusively
here in the red clay hills of southern China: dysprosium, terbium
and europium. According to a new United States Energy Department
report, the most important of these for clean energy is dysprosium.
Its price is now $132 a pound, compared with $6.50 a pound in 2003.
In the last few months, the government has deployed helicopter
patrols to spot illegal mines. Teams of dozens of police officers
have conducted raids into the hills of northern Guangdong and
arrested at least 100 owners and managers of rare earth mines and
refineries, said a Chinese mining expert who insisted on anonymity
because of the issue’s political risks. Government workers equipped
with blowtorches have accompanied the police to cut apart illegal
mining equipment and either seize it or distribute it to peasants
for sale as scrap.
The gangs have terrorized villagers who dare to complain about the
many tons of sulfuric acid and other chemicals being dumped into
streambeds during the processing of ore. Illegal rare earth mining
and chemical runoff have poisoned thousands of acres of prime
farmland, according to the government of Guangdong Province, and
have been blamed for many illnesses.
It's nice to see this concern over pollution,but cynically,I cannot help wondering if the real goal of this crackdown is to raise prices or secure favorable trade
agreements.
The protesters' banners read slogans such as "Estonia! Welcome on board of the Titanic!" and "Stop the euroruble!", reported the Baltic Business News.
The rally against the adoption of the euro took place in a part of downtown Tallinn, which on December 31, 2010, will host the main celebrations for Estonia's accession to the euro zone.
According to the MTU Oma Riik organization, which is behind the anti-euro movement, the majority of the Estonians do not wish to give up the kroon, and the euro itself will not bring the desired financial stability. The movement has demanded a referendum on the adoption of the euro.
"The Estonian kroon has functioned very well in its 18 years. Euro will not bring the stability that is being promised. Our currenteconomic policy will become a farce from the moment when we get the billfor the pyramid schemes of Irish and Greek banks," the movement leaderAnti Poolamets is quoted as saying.
Following the publication of the monthly Central Bank of Ireland flow statistics for November, that the country's bank ended up borrowing another massive amount of capital from both Europe and the central bank itself, should not be surprising. After all it was in November that Ireland followed Greece into the insolvency abyss, a place where none other than Olli Rehn guarded the gates to feudal hell. However, one much more troubling factor is that the depositor run from Irish banks, a development which many have cited as potentially being the catalyst for the next major step down in the European house of cards tumble, is accelerating. From the report: "Deposits from the Irish resident private sector were 6.7 per cent lower on a year-to-year basis in November 2010. The annual rate of change in deposits from Irish households was minus 4.5 per cent, whereas deposits from Irish NFCs fell by 14.9 per cent on an annual basis in November." What this means simply said, is that as more deposit capital is withdrawn from Irish banks, the more they will need to rely on ECB and ICB funding, the more distressed they will be perceived as, the more capital will be withdrawn and so on... But that is a 2011 story.
From Reuters:
http://www.zerohedge.com/modules/blockquote/images/menu-leaf.gif); position: absolute; height: 9px; width: 9px; left: -5px; top: -5px; background-position: 0% 0%;">http://www.zerohedge.com/modules/blockquote/images/menu-leaf.gif); position: absolute; height: 9px; width: 9px; bottom: -5px; right: -5px; background-position: 100% 100%;">The European Central Bank lent banks in Ireland, including foreign lenders, 138.2 billion in November, an increase on the 136 billion euros Ireland's central bank said lenders had received up to November 26.
Domestic banks accounted for 97.3 billion euros of the total, a rise of 13.7 percent during a month that ended with Ireland securing an 85 billion euro IMF/EU bailout, the central bank said in a statement on Thursday.
However, as every financial transaction in Europe has a secondary central bank intermediary, the realy bulk of money actually came from the Irish Central Bank (which in turn had also borrowed from the ECB):
http://www.zerohedge.com/modules/blockquote/images/menu-leaf.gif); position: absolute; height: 9px; width: 9px; left: -5px; top: -5px; background-position: 0% 0%;">http://www.zerohedge.com/modules/blockquote/images/menu-leaf.gif); position: absolute; height: 9px; width: 9px; bottom: -5px; right: -5px; background-position: 100% 100%;">On top of the ECB funding, Ireland's central bank had lent the country's banks nearly 45 billion euros in exceptional liquidity assistance by November 26, a 10 billion euro increase on the previous month. No update was provided for this figure.
Before one dismisses these amounts, keep in mind that Irish GDP is about $170 billion (assuming one can believe any such numbers out of Europe)...
Yet lending is easy: all the ECB would need to do is get Germany to finally agree to print some more paper: if Merkel is uncomfortable with this process, she can merely retain the services of one Brian Sack: he will be sure to explain all the nuances. What is far more difficult is to convince people that their deposits in the banking system are safe. And that's where Ireland is failing:
http://www.zerohedge.com/modules/blockquote/images/menu-leaf.gif); position: absolute; height: 9px; width: 9px; left: -5px; top: -5px; background-position: 0% 0%;">http://www.zerohedge.com/modules/blockquote/images/menu-leaf.gif); position: absolute; height: 9px; width: 9px; bottom: -5px; right: -5px; background-position: 100% 100%;">Deposits from the Irish resident private sector were 6.7 percent lower on a year-to-year basis in November, separate figures showed.
Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.I), which Ireland effectively nationalised last week, said last month that it had lost 13 billion euros in deposits since the end of June.
Larger rival Bank of Ireland (BKIR.I) shed 10 billion euros of deposits in the third quarter while bancassurer Irish Life & Permanent (IPM.I) said it had suffered a 600 million outflow in the same period.
Some 35 billion euros of the 85 billion euro bailout will be channelled to the country's banks. Around 10 billion euros will be used for immediate capital injections, and a further 25 billion be kept as a back-up in case further injections are needed.
Details directly from the Bank report:
- Deposits from the Irish resident private sector were 6.7 per cent lower on a year-to-year basis in November 2010. The annual rate of change in deposits from Irish households was minus 4.5 per cent, whereas deposits from Irish NFCs fell by 14.9 per cent on an annual basis in November. Deposits from OFIs and insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs) declined by 4.3 per cent over the period.
- There was a negative net monthly flow of Irish resident private-sector deposits during November totalling €5.2 billion, bringing the three-month average net flow to minus €2.1 billion. This is in comparison to an average net monthly flow of Irish resident private-sector deposits of minus €677 million in the three months ending October 2010. The negative net monthly flow of Irish private-sector deposits in November was primarily due to a fall in household and OFI/ICPF deposits.
- Developments in overnight private-sector deposits have remained volatile. The net monthly flow of overnight deposits averaged minus €479 million in the three months ending November 2010, compared with €987 million over the three months ending October 2010. During November, overnight deposits from households fell by €504 million, which is likely due in part to seasonal factors as it is a common occurrence in November in previous years. Almost the entire decline in OFI deposits during the month was in the overnight category. Total overnight deposits from the Irish private sector were 5.3 per cent lower on an annual basis in November 2010.
And just in case anyone is wondering what the source of all the capital is that is pushing the EURCHF to fresh all time highs day after day, not to mention spreads of PIIGS CDS closing 2010 at near all time wides, please refer to the chart above.
