This is my Elliott Wave view of the last few days action. We've seen a clear 5 wave move down followed by a correction. Triangles can only appear in waves 4 or B so when the triangle shown tried to break down last night I thought it was a wave 4 correction with wave 5 down to come. However it seemed to be a fake out which suggested a rally instead today for wave C before we start sliding down again. (I will post a shorter timeframe chart below to illustrate)
So for the rest of the week? Indices are looking very oversold tonight so I would expect a pullback (rally) of some sort tomorrow before wave 3 kicks in and we have a powerful sell off. Today was wave 1 down, once we complete another full 5 wave move down there is a big rally on the cards IMO.
Above you can see the triangle I mentioned earlier. You can see the fake out (circled in red) but looking very oversold with divergence it went nowhere. When the triangle broke to the upside this morning it pulled back to the line which is the low risk entry point when trading a triangle breakout. You can also see at the end of today that sell off looking oversold and needing a pull back before heading lower.
Finally a closer look at today on the 1 minute chart:
Sorry if that isn't the clearest chart, I don't have the best tools for illustrating what I see. If you had recognised the triangle in the earlier charts as being wave B then you would be ready to count the breakout of the triangle as a wave C which should have 5 waves. Within those 5 waves, waves 1, 3 & 5 which are the rallies should each break down into 5 waves themselves. Wave 1 had 5 sub waves (in blue), wave 3 had five (in red) and wave 5 had 5 in green.
The top of wave C was fairly easy to spot if you were looking for it and gave a low risk short entry to catch the sell off that followed.
We've seen a powerful sell off today. I would expect a rally tomorrow (wave 2 correction) before an even more powerful sell off (wave 3) begins. Note: wave 2 can often retrace very deeply into wave 1!
I hope the above charts make sense to any non Elliott Wavers and maybe they will encourage people to take a look at EW and perhaps adopt it as a powerful trading tool!
The market did not have any surprises during the last week. The price unfolded quite as expected. With a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low. We are now at or close to the completion of what we expect to be wave c.II. However, there still seems to be a potential for the price reaching close to the 1138 to 1142 mark.
It is also important to keep in mind an alternative interpretation of the move down since December 03, ’09, while planning any potential trades:With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low (1044.55), we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January 11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30).
