oil (3)
According to The International Crude Oil Market Handbook, 2004,1 published by the Energy Intelligence Group, there are about 161 different internationally traded crude oils. They vary in terms of characteristics, quality, and market penetration. Two crude oils which are either traded themselves or whose prices are reflected in other types of crude oil include West Texas Intermediate and Brent. Comparing these two crude oils with EIA's Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost (IRAC), the OPEC Basket, and NYMEX futures is important to understand the differences among the various types of crude oil that are often referred to in the press and by analysts. Generally, differences in the prices of these various crude oils are related to quality differences, but other factors can also influence the price relationships between each other.
West Texas Intermediate
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is of very high quality and is excellent for refining a larger portion of gasoline. Its API gravity is 39.6 degrees (making it a “light” crude oil), and it contains only about 0.24 percent of sulfur (making a “sweet” crude oil). This combination of characteristics, combined with its location, makes it an ideal crude oil to be refined in the United States, the largest gasoline consuming country in the world. Most WTI crude oil gets refined in the Midwest region of the country, with some more refined within the Gulf Coast region. Although the production of WTI crude oil is on the decline, it still is the major benchmark of crude oil in the Americas. WTI is generally priced at about a $5 to $6 per-barrel premium to the OPEC Basket price and about $1 to $2 per-barrel premium to Brent, although on a daily basis the pricing relationships between these can vary greatly.
Brent
Brent Blend is actually a combination of crude oil from 15 different oil fields in the Brent and Ninian systems located in the North Sea. Its API gravity is 38.3 degrees (making it a “light” crude oil, but not quite as “light” as WTI), while it contains about 0.37 percent of sulfur (making it a “sweet” crude oil, but again slightly less “sweet” than WTI). Brent blend is ideal for making gasoline and middle distillates, both of which are consumed in large quantities in Northwest Europe, where Brent blend crude oil is typically refined. However, if the arbitrage between Brent and other crude oils, including WTI, is favorable for export, Brent has been known to be refined in the United States (typically the East Coast or the Gulf Coast) or the Mediterranean region. Brent blend, like WTI, production is also on the decline, but it remains the major benchmark for other crude oils in Europe or Africa. For example, prices for other crude oils in these two continents are often priced as a differential to Brent, i.e., Brent minus $0.50. Brent blend is generally priced at about a $4 per-barrel premium to the OPEC Basket price or about a $1 to $2 per-barrel discount to WTI, although on a daily basis the pricing relationships can vary greatly.
NYMEX Futures
The NYMEX futures price for crude oil, which is reported in almost every major newspaper in the United States, represents (on a per-barrel basis) the market-determined value of a futures contract to either buy or sell 1,000 barrels of WTI or some other light, sweet crude oil at a specified time. Relatively few NYMEX crude oil contracts are actually executed for physical delivery. The NYMEX market, however, provides important price information to buyers and sellers of crude oil in the United States (and around the world), making WTI the benchmark for many different crude oils, especially in the Americas. Typically, the NYMEX futures prices tracks within pennies of the WTI spot price described above, although since the NYMEX futures contract for a given month expires 3 days before WTI spot trading for the same month ceases, there may be a few days in which the difference between the NYMEX futures price and the WTI spot price widens noticeably.
OPEC Basket Price
For a discussion of crude oil pricing in general, and of the OPEC Basket price in particular, see EIA's OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet. OPEC collects pricing data on a "basket" of seven crude oils, including: Algeria's Saharan Blend, Indonesia's Minas, Nigeria's Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia's Arab Light, Dubai's Fateh, Venezuela's Tia Juana Light, and Mexico's Isthmus (a non-OPEC crude oil). OPEC uses the price of this basket to monitor world oil market conditions. As mentioned above, because WTI crude oil is a very light, sweet (low sulfur content) crude, it is generally more expensive than the OPEC basket, which is an average of light sweet crude oils such as Algeria's Saharan Blend and heavier sour crude oils (with high sulfur content) such as Dubai's Fateh. Brent is also lighter, sweeter, and more expensive than the OPEC basket, although less so than WTI.
Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost
The Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost (IRAC) is a volume-weighted average price of all crude oils imported into the United States over a specified period. Because the United States imports more types of crude oil than any other country, it may represent the truest “world oil price” among all published crude oil prices. The IRAC is also usually similar to the OPEC Basket price, so it too is typically about $6 to $8 per barrel less than the WTI spot price and about $5 to $6 per barrel less than the Brent price. However, because the IRAC is not reported by EIA until nearly 2 months after the end of the month in question, i.e., the August IRAC average price would be reported sometime in late October, the IRAC is not a particularly timely measure of a “world oil price”. Although EIA is generally the only organization that uses the IRAC, it is used by EIA as the “world oil price” in all of its forecast publications, including the Short-Term Energy Outlook, released monthly, as well as the Annual Energy Outlook and International Energy Outlook, both of which are released annually and provide an annual forecast looking out approximately 20 years in the future.
1Energy Intelligence Group, The International Crude Oil Market Handbook, 2004, pp. E1, E287 and E313.
Correlations between the world's most heavily traded commodities and currency pairs are common. For example, the Canadian dollar (CAD) is correlated to oil prices due to exporting, while Japan is susceptible to oil prices because it imports most of its oil.
Similarly, Australia (AUD) and New Zealand (NZD) have a close relationship to gold prices and oil prices. While the correlations (positive or negative) can be significant, if forex traders want to profit from them, it's important to time a "correlation trade" properly. There will be times when a relationship breaks down, and such times can be very costly for a trader who does not understand what is occurring.
Being aware of a correlation, monitoring it, and timing it are crucial to successful trading based on the intermarket analysis provided by examining currency and commodity relationships.
Deciding Which Currency and Commodity Relationships to Trade
Not all currency/commodity correlations are worth trading. Traders need to take into account commissions and spreads, additional fees, liquidity, and also access to information. Currencies and commodities that are heavily traded will be easier to find information on, and will have smaller spreads and liquidity that is more likely to be adequate.
Canada is a major exporter of oil, and thus its economy is affected by the price of oil and the amount it can export. Japan is a major importer of oil, and thus the price of oil and the amount it must import affects the Japanese economy. Because of the major effect oil has on Canada and Japan, the CAD/JPY positively correlates with oil prices. This pair can be monitored as well as the USD/CAD. The downside is that the CAD/JPY generally has a higher spread and is less liquid than the USD/CAD. Since oil is priced in US dollars throughout most of the world, the fluctuating dollar impacts oil prices (and vice versa). Therefore, the USD/CAD can also be watched given that the two countries are major oil importers and exporters.
Figure 1: CAD/JPY versus adjusted oil prices. Chart shows weekly data for 2007 through 2010:
Click to Enlarge
Figure 1 shows that there are times when the currency pair and oil diverged. The oil prices are adjusted. Figure 2 uses unadjusted oil prices, and through 2010, a strong correlation can be seen, showing it is important to monitor correlation in real-time with actual trade data.
Figure 2: CAD/JPY versus unadjusted oil futures (percentage terms). YTD (2010), Daily:
Click to Enlarge
NEXT: Trading Commodity Pairs Including AUD/USD
Australia is one of the major gold producers in the world. As a result, its economy is impacted by the price of gold and how much it can export. New Zealand is a major trading partner with Australia and is thus highly susceptible to fluctuations in Australia's economy. This means that New Zealand is also highly affected by Australia's relation to gold. In 2008, Australia was the fourth-largest gold producer in the world. In 2009, the US was the third-largest buyer of gold. Therefore, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are suitable for trading in relation to gold prices.
Figure 3: AUD/USD versus adjusted gold futures (percentage). Chart shows weekly data for 2007 through 2010:
Click to Enlarge
While Australia was among the smaller-volume oil exporters in 2009, throughout 2010, the AUD/USD was also positively correlated to oil prices, and then diverged in September.
Figure 4: AUD/USD versus unadjusted oil futures (percentage). YTD (2010), Daily:
Click to Enlarge
Currency commodity relationships may change over time. Other currency commodity relationships can be found by looking for major producers of any export, as well as the major importers of the same commodity. The currency cross rate between the exporter and importer is worth looking at for a correlation with the commodity.
Deciding Which Instrument(s) to Trade
Upon knowing which currencies and commodities have strong relationships, traders need to decide which tradable currency pair they will make their trades in, or if they will trade in the commodity and currency. This will depend upon several factors, including fees and the trader's ability to access a given market. The charts show that the commodity is often the more volatile of the instruments.
If accessible, a trader may be able to trade the commodity and currency pair from one account due to the widespread use of commodity contracts for difference (CFDs).
NEXT: Be Sure to Watch Correlations for "Cracks"
Monitoring the Correlation for "Cracks"
It is also crucial to point out that just because a relationship exists "on average" over time does not mean that strong correlations exist at all times. While these currency pairs are worth watching for their high correlation tendencies towards a commodity, there will be times when the strong correlation does not exist and may even reverse for some time.
A commodity and currency pair that is highly positively correlated one year may diverge and become negatively correlated in the next. Traders who venture into correlation trading should be aware of when a correlation is strong and when it is shifting.
Monitoring correlations can be done quite easily with modern trading platforms. A correlation indicator can be used to show the real-time correlation between a commodity and a currency pair over a given period. A trader may wish to capture small divergences while the two instruments remain highly correlated overall. When divergence continues and the correlation weakens, a trader needs to step back and understand that this correlation may be in a period of deterioration; it is time to step to the sidelines or take a different trading approach to accommodate the changing market.
Figure 5: CAD/JPY versus oil futures and correlation indicator. Chart shows weekly data for 2008 through 2010:
Click to Enlarge
Figure 5 shows the weekly CAD/JPY as well as the correlation indicator (15 periods) comparing it to oil futures. Much of the time the indicator shows a strong correlation in the 0.80 area, yet there are times when the correlation falls off. When the indicator falls below a certain threshold (for example, 0.50), the correlation is not strong and the trader can wait for the currency and commodity to re-establish the strong correlation. Divergences can be used for trade signals, but it should be noted that divergences can last for long periods of time.
The correlation indicator can be adjusted for the time frame a trader is trading on. A longer calculation period will smooth out the results and is better for longer-term traders. Shortening the calculation period will make the indicator choppier, but may also provide short-term signals and allow for correlation trading on smaller time frames.
NEXT: How to Properly Time Currency/Commodity Trades
Timing the Currency/Commodity Trade
Upon looking at the prior charts, it is apparent that timing and a strategy is needed for navigating the fluctuating correlations between currencies and commodities. While exact entry and exit will be determined by the trader and will depend on whether they are trading the commodity, currency, or both, a trader should be aware of several things when entering and exiting correlation trades.
- Are the currency and commodity currently correlated? How about over time?
- Does one asset seem to lead the other?
- Is price diverging? Is one asset class making higher highs, for example, while the other asset class fails to make higher highs? If this is the case, wait for the two to begin moving together once again.
Use a trend confirmation tool. If divergences occur, wait for a trend to emerge (or a reversal) where the currency and commodity trend in their appropriate correlated fashion.
Figure 6: USD/CAD versus Oil CFD (contract for difference):
Click to Enlarge
By monitoring correlations, several trades could have been confirmed in the USD/CAD and oil markets over the time frame shown in Figure 6. While one could trade the pairs during correlated times, this particular time frame saw several divergences. As the currency and commodity realigned themselves, large trends developed. By watching for breaks in trend lines in both the commodity and currency, or by waiting for one asset class to join the correlation trend of the other asset class (marked by blue arrows), several large trends could have been captured. This is similar to watching for divergences in the correlation indicator and then taking a trade in a trending direction as the commodity and currency realign. The commodity, currency, or both could be traded.
The Bottom Line on Trading Currency and Commodity Correlations
Correlations between currencies and commodities are not an exact science. Often correlations break down and may even reverse for extended periods. Traders must remain vigilant in monitoring correlations for opportunities. Correlation indicators or monitoring charts are two ways of completing this task. After divergences, waiting for the commodity and currency to align in their respective trends can be a powerful signal, yet traders must accept that divergences can last for a long time. Relationships may change over time as countries alter exports or imports, and this will affect correlations. It is also important that traders determine how they will make trades, whether in the currency, the commodity, or both.
By Cory Mitchell
Cory Mitchell is an independent trader specializing in short- to medium-term technical strategies and a contributor to Investopedia.com. He is the founder of www.vantagepointtrading.com, a Web site dedicated to free trader education and discussion
Taken from :
