Featured Posts (1441)
Sort by
Summary
Long term outlook: Up- Medium Term Outlook: Down
- Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Up
- Revision Point: Break above 1260
- Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
- Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase..
The price action during the last week invalidated our preferred count and raised our previously alternative count to the preferred status.
With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low, we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January 11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30). However, given our current outlook, we will expect a downward move at the completion of wave 2 to make lows below the February 5’10 low.
As a current alternative, we have a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low and now forming wave c.II to complete wave II.3. As per this alternative scenario, we would expect wave c.II to terminate at around the 1137 level, from where the downward move can be expected to resume.
so,ws how about a trip by you to london on that day.not interested in what master investor have to say,but more interested in meeting everybody on the board and exchanging ideas and knowledge..ws..please come you owe it to us.also,it is before the cricket season starts !!
now also,,how about you persuading gareth solway and nick santiago to come to london for the weekend..then it will be a real shindig..i am sure they would like to travel to london..you could even tell them that the queen wants to meet them....no seriously..we all need to meet up
there is much to be talked about
Throughout 2009 a case can be made that the major indexes rarely sold off sharply on Fridays. One can speculate that the institutional money that can move markets usually does not want to scare the Asian markets over the weekend. Today the markets are down sharply on the back of the stronger U.S. Dollar after China increased their bank requirements by 0.50 percent. When you combine this with the problems in the European Union, presto we see a stronger U.S. Dollar.
By now we all know the stronger U.S. Dollar puts pressure on commodities and inflationary stocks. The declining dollar was the catalyst for the 2009 stock market rally that traded higher by more than 50 percent in just 10 months. As we say everyday since March 2009 stock market low “every trade is a dollar trade.”
Today is interesting, there are a couple of stocks that should remain on watch due to fact that they are showing good relative strength intra-day. The first stock that is showing good intra day relative strength is United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X). The stock is positive on a negative trading day and may run if the dollar declines further. The other stock is Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT). This stock is negative today by 0.91 cents intra-day. Considering the bloodbath in the market today this could run higher if the dollar declines. Last but not least is Research In Motion Limited (Nasdaq:RIMM). This stock is higher by 1.30 at the moment when the market is negative showing good daily strength.
If the markets catch a bid on the possible "Friday Effect," these stocks look to benefit. Continue to use caution as the month of February is filled with uncertainty. Please remember the U.S. Dollar is the controlling force that moves these markets.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
IntheMoneyStocks.com
