A PRICELESS CASE OF DJ VU maybe emerging this week: AUDUSD fails at the 100-day MA of 0.9065, which we WARNED IN OUR PRE-RBA IMT yesterday by indicating: any subsequent break-out has to face the 100-day MA at 0.9070 (100-day MA not broken since late January). Today AUDUSD continues to fail these CONFLUENCE LEVELS (100-day MA & 61.8% retracement at 0.9038). **** FLASHBACK TO TUESDAY DECEMBER 1st when the RBA hiked by 25 bps to 3.75% only for the Aussie to peak at 0.9326 before being dragged down 2 days later along with ALL RISK ASSETS and CURRENCIES on that INFAMOUS FRIDAY Dec 4th when the stronger than expected US Nov jobs report (released Dec 4th) proved to be an extremely USD-positive event to the extent of UNWINDING THE USD-CARRY TRADE (dragging down gold, silver, oil, stocks all against USD and JPY). And Yes YOU've GUESSED IT: This coming Friday is the Feb US jobs report, only this time we may have a SNOW-FILLED DISAPPOINTMENT that could drag down equities & commodities to the benefit of the USD & JPY. Here's another thing; GOLD HIT a new record high against EUR on that week ending in Dec 4th, the same as TODAY (gold hit new record in EUR terms). And if that is not enough, today's YEN strength PRECEDED the eventual retreat in US stocks. Markets are losing steam as S&P500 approaches 1120 (previous 50% retracement of 2007-2009 move). CONCLUSION: A new round of strength in USD + JPY emerging later this week against all major FX, alongside a protracted pullback in equities + metals.
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By Nicholas Santiago on March 2nd, 2010 12:58pm Eastern Time
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has come a long way from the early the 2000's when it traded around 5.00 to 10.00 dollars a share. This company has reinvented itself more than any technology company in the past ten years. Apple Inc has proven itself to be more than a one trick pony as compared to other tech companies, Dell Inc (Nasdaq:DELL), or Hewlett Packard Co (NYSE:HPQ).
Apple Inc is a company that has come a long way from the original Macintosh Computer. They are now revolutionizing the cell phone business, music industry, and even the computer industry. They seem to reinvent the market place every year with a new and exciting idea. Apple Inc has become iconic and it is what someone thinks about when you mention pop culture.
Now everyone knows Apple Inc is a dynamic and exciting company, however, the stock could be painting a different picture. Much like the overall market Apple's stock pulled back in January after breaching the 215.00 level. On January 29th, 2010 the stock found a low around 190.00 while the S&P 500 made a low on February 5th, 2010. This is telling us that Apple Inc (Nasdaq:AAPL) is leading the market and not following the market.
The next big test for AAPL Inc will be at the 216.00 level which was the January high. Often a stock of this size and beta could trade slightly higher than that level before finding resistance. Therefore, the 220.00 level could be in the cards as an important resistance level and likely pullback area. Apple Inc should also be watched around the time of any new product releases as the stock has a tendency decline around that time. This happens because it is a typical 'buy the rumor and sell the news' type event.
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By Gareth Soloway on March 2nd, 2010 2:27pm Eastern Time
The markets are floating higher today and are on pace for one of the lightest trading day of 2010. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading up $0.65 or 0.75%. The key to the slight up move again has been the falling dollar. The dollar started out neutral to slightly higher but quickly was pushed down by the "powers" that be. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is down now $0.06 or 0.25%. While the dollar is slowly dropping, we are seeing a slight disconnect emerging in the perfect opposite relationship between the dollar and the markets. This is something we need to watch very closely.
Key stocks making moves today are Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM). After an amazing amount of bad news and peoples bearish view on Palm, I began to drool and salivate. Anytime the masses (amateur traders/investors) get so bearish on a play when it has dropped over 50% in a month, I know a bounce is coming. Sure enough, from my alerted entry of $5.83 to my Research Center subscribers and Intra Day Stock Chat members, we are up almost 10% on the trade. It may continue towards $7.00 or beyond depending on the markets momentum.
Technology has remained strong today after yesterdays amazing move. The leaders here are again Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and after a slow day yesterday, Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) had decided to be a leader.
Many Chinese small cap companies are emerging as runners today. China Security & Surveillance Tech. Inc. (NYSE:CSR), Origin Agritech Ltd. (NASDAQ:SEED) are just a few. It looks like stocks that have a lot of shorts are seeing some covering. This action usually spells a soon to be end to a market run. Remember, always go the opposite way of the masses, the pros do!
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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GOLD HITTING NEW HIGHS vs. EUR at 837.08 which could be another classic topping formation in the metal as the case proved 2 weeks ago vs. EUR and against JPY in Dec 2nd. Gold vs. USD extends gains towards 1134, facing key resistance at 113550% retracement of the decline from the 1125 high to the 1044 low. Dollar gets a brief lift after Kansas Fed's Hoenig (lone hawkish dissenter at FOMC) reiterates his opposition to the Committee's "low rates...for considerable period" mantra; adding that zero rates are not sustainable. $GBPUSD drops from $1.4990s to $1.4930s, but renewed USD capping interest supports GBPUSD and EURUSD at $1.4880 and $1.3470. 1 DAY LEFT TO REGISTER TO THETHREEGURUS MEGAWEBINAR ASHRAF's WEBINAR will be at 21:00 - 22:00 GMT REGISTER HERE to Listen to Ashraf & 7 other experts in Trading, Options & Technical Analysis http://bit.ly/9QbYvCRead more…
By Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway on March 1st, 2010 4:48pm Eastern Time
Amazon.com, Inc. (NasdaqGS: AMZN) soared all day as it approached the daily 50 moving average. This level is at approximately $125.25 and should be short term resistance. The whole tech sector rallied today on the back of positive comments about the semiconductor sector. SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK) jumped almost 12% on good news and analyst comments. Other stocks like Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) also jumped solidly.
Financial stocks remained weak with Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) slightly higher while JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) dropped fractionally. The volume today was inanely light telling me that institutions sat on the sidelines waiting for more data from Europe on the bailout for Greece. The dollar started higher but slowly floated lower all day, still ending slightly positive.
Tomorrow the markets have very little economic news. This means they will most likely focus on geopolitical events mostly from Europe and England. The British Pound has been crushed in the last week including an ugly day today. The Euro of course has been hit hard as well. To see the Pound chart take a look at CurrencyShares British Pound Ster. Trst (NYSE:FXB). What a cliff dive! Wednesday we get the ADP Employment numbers. As the jobs data starts to take shape, the markets will take their cue and move accordingly.
The currency issues in the world right now are amazing. With the collapse in the Euro and Pound and the meteoric rise in the dollar, one has to wonder where the next issue will come from. Greece is just the start. Any institution or experienced trader knows that. The big question will be, do they all get bailed out, do some default on their debt and when all is said and done, how many? This is a pot of water just coming to a boil. Just looking at the charts like the FXB or the FXE will tell you that. Stay tuned for further hardcore coverage, calls and guidance in the Research Center at InTheMoneyStocks.com
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By InTheMoneyStocks on March 1st, 2010 3:15pm Eastern Time
The U.S. Dollar traded sharply higher in overnight trade as the British Pound and the Euro sold off sharply. However, since the U.S. stock market opened at 9:30 am EST the U.S. Dollar has sold off. This looks to be more currency confusion as Chile is trying to recover from an earthquake over the weekend. This earthquake gave a big pop to copper today as many copper mines had to close. The Greece crisis is still unresolved, however, rumors that a bailout is in the works seems to come out every hour. The British Pound crisis is another situation that must be watched closely as this could just be getting started.
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While we continue to deem the recent rebound in EUR as a temporary retracement before renewed erosion towards $1.32; 0.922 (vs. GBP) and 1.4550 (vs. CHF); the accelerating losses in GBP face no immediate floor until $1.4590 and $1.4334 (76% retracement of the rally from the $1.35 low to the $1.7006 high.
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By Nicholas Santiago on March 1st, 2010 12:47pm Eastern Time
In late December 2009, one of the clues that the major stock indexes were going to decline in the month of January 2010 was the commercial real estate stocks. Leading commercial real estate stocks such as Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO), and Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) headed the rally in 2009 and forshadowed the decline January 2010.
Many traders and investors have thought throughout 2009 that commercial real estate was going to be the next shoe to drop on the stock market. However, that was not the case in 2009 as these stocks not only held up well, but, actually outperformed. In late December 2009 these stocks started to show weakness. The ishares Dow Jones Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR), which is a basket of many different real estate companies rolled over at the same time and confirmed that the January decline was industry specific and not company specific.
Now we are back at interesting levels again for most of these commercial real estate stocks. Currently the February move higher has been nothing short of impressive for commercial real estate and the overall stock indexes. However, it has lacked several factors for a sustaining rally. Many of these stocks in this commercial real estate group are trading below their daily 50 moving average. This is something that many institutional traders watch very closely. Then the volume on this rally in February has been somewhat on the weak side. This is also another sign that many institutional traders will take note of. The last factor that we have noticed is that this industry group is now trading into good retracement levels which will usually serve as good resistance area.
These stocks and this sector have been excellent stock market barometers over the past year. The commercial real estate sector is now nearing a very important level. If these stocks start to fall soon the overall market may not be too far behind. Today these stocks are behaving just fine, however, this type of action could change on a dime and might be worth monitoring.
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By Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway on March 1st, 2010 1:53pm Eastern Time
Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ:RIMM) is stuck still trying to break through the gap windown created by a poor earnings report back on September 24th, 2009. This gap window was formed when after the markets closed, Research In Motion released a less than stellar earnings report according to Wall Street. The stock had closed that day at $83.06.
The next day the volume was massive and the price dropped sharply. This created the current gap window that Research In Motion is still trying to break through. The high for the day was $71.42. Since then, the stock price of Research In Motion has hit that level many times. Even intra day, it has crossed that level but by the time the markets closed, it was back below.
The latest attempt was made today. In this mornings session, Research In Motion went as high as $71.79, above the gap window resistance point. However, since then, the stock has fallen back down below $71.00. Could this be another failed attempt? Very possible.
Bottom line is this. If Research In Motion is able to close above the $71.42 level, it has a high probability of continuing higher near term. However, should it fail to move above this level in the next few days, the stock may be destined for a drop back into the mid $60.00 level. Time is of the essence here. Technically it does need to break soon or a pullback lower is likely. Watch and wait. Enjoy
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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By InTheMoneyStocks on March 1st, 2010 9:35am Eastern Time
The U.S. Dollar index is trading sharply higher ever since the European markets opened today. Generally when the dollar is trading higher the Stock market indexes are lower. However, today the stock market indexes are gapped slightly higher. As long as there is some decent volume in the market the dollar will dictate every move. When the stock market volume is light it is possible to see the dollar have very little effect on the stock market.
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By Chief Market Strategist Nicholas Santiago on March 1st, 2010 11:14am Eastern Time
This morning the tax payer owned American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) agreed to sell one of it's most valuable assets; it's Asian life insurance business to Prudential PLC for $35.5 billion. The deal includes AIG receiving $25 billion in cash, $8.5 billion in equity and equity related securities, along with $2 billion in preferred stock for its American International Assurance Ltd unit. American International Group is in the hole to the U.S. government for $182.3 billion for the recent bailouts.
After selling one of their most valuable units, many are wondering what AIG has left in asset terms to move back into profitability. In this deal AIG will get a stake in Prudential and can always sell those shares down the road. Currently AIG looks like a controlled liquidation as they could be in the works to sell another unit to MetLife, Inc. (NYSE:MET) for approximately $50 billion.
This deal today has been announced while the markets around the world are all positive. The London FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:.FTSE) is trading higher by 43.00 points to 5395.00, the French CAC 40 (INDEXEURO:.FCHI) is trading higher by 46.00 to 3755.00, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is trading higher by 66.00 points to 10,392.00.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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By InTheMoneyStocks.com on March 1st, 2010 11:48am Eastern Time
The markets continue to inch higher with the DOW +0.80%, Nasdaq +1.30%, S&P 500 +0.90%. The markets are inching up even though the dollar is stronger on hope of a global recovery. Personal Income and Spending numbers were released this morning but did not move the futures much either way. The dollar initially gapped higher, then spiked higher but has since fallen sharply. This fall on the dollar off the highs is continuing to allow the markets to trade near their highs.
Key Stocks In Motion
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) continues to soar as it did late last week. The stock is +2.00% on the day at $208.65. Just since Thursday, Apple Inc. has moved from $196.89 to its current levels. This strength is carrying over to the NASDAQ and keeping it up percentage wise more than the DOW and S&P 500. Strong chip sales seem to be giving rise to tech stocks.
SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK) upped its guidance. Positive comments from analysts followed. The stock is soaring today. It is up almost 9.00%. Technically, the stock has resistance at $32.00. A key double top level.
OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSIP) gave confirmation today that they had received an unsolicited bid from Astellas Pharma Inc. to be acquired for $52 per share. As of now the company does not look like it is interested in being bought for that price. The stock is soaring today up $53% to $56.65.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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