Counter trend opportunity on 15th to sell the Dow/FTSE etc for 'maybe' 5 days, but it should at least be a down day and then a subsequent down day before looking to go long with the trend if the opportunity presents itself which far less risky...The weapon of choice is a combination of mathematic ratios along with sacred geometry based on solar units of time.Obviously it's a numbers game and can't be right 100% of the time.
By Nicholas Santiago on March 12th, 2010 3:30pm Eastern Time
Rarely do we have a big sell off day on Friday. Since October of 2008, the major market indexes have only closed down by more than 100 points a hand full of times. We call this phenomenon the "Friday Effect." We are not certain why this occurs, however, we can speculate why this happens and we have several thoughts on the topic.
The reasons we believe Friday seem to hold up so well are:
1. The institutional money that can move the market does not want to cause a panic in the public over the weekend. The weekend is when most consumer have off from work and will spend money. If this economy is going to inflate itself back to some kind of health it will need the U.S. consumer to spend his or her money.
2. Institutional money does not want to cause panic or fear in Asia and Europe leading into Monday when the U.S. markets resume trading. Most heavy or sharp Monday declines and panics started with a very weak Friday.
If you look at today's action, the market is basically flat. So far the 'Friday Effect' looks to be working its usual magic.
Stronger than expected US Feb retail sales would normally have been negative for the US dollar via the channel of rising equities but a more-forward looking view argues for a USD-supportive stance as it maintains growing hawkishness from the Fed. Todays stronger than exp figures will not only maintain Kansas Feds Hoenig to dissent against the FOMC mantra of exceptionally low federal funds rate for an extended period, but will trigger further upgrade in the FOMC economic outlook, which will be negative for Fed funds futures. EURUSD fails to break the $1.3810-20 resistance that is required to eliminate the euro's downward channel.
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By Nicholas Santiago on March 12th, 2010 12:57pm Eastern Time
Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) is one stock that is not at new highs for the year. In fact the stock topped out on November 25th, 2009 at $76.50 a share. Since that time Exxon Mobil Corp has sold off into the low $60.00 dollar range before finding some support. Technically the stock still looks pretty poor on the daily chart and could trade back down if the major market pulls back from it's recent surge.
While Exxon Mobil Corp's stock may appear weak on the daily charts this stock is a great intra-day stock market barometer. When this stock trades into a resistance level and pulls back often the market will do the same . The same case can be made when the stock trades lower into support and bounces often the market market will follow the reaction of Exxon Mobil Corp. Trader's can correlate these Exxon Mobil Corps stock moves with SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), or the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) intra day and see how well it works.
Why does this phenomenon occur? Perhaps the market indexes follow Exxon Mobil Corp so well because it is such a large component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. Exxon Mobil currently has the largest market capitalization of any stock in the market at around $306 billion dollars. The next highest market cap is Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) at $246 billion dollars. I suppose this is the power of being the king of the hill.
Please realize that these correlated moves with Exxon Mobil Corp and the markets are not proportional, however, they are reactionary.
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By Gareth Soloway on March 12th, 2010 12:02pm Eastern Time
As I research the markets day after day, I find some interesting technical signals and signs recurring. One that I mentioned recently was in relation to the previous 52 week high on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). The previous 52 week high was $115.14, until it was taken out over the last few days. My previous thesis and call was that the institutions, seeing the markets hit the 52 week high of $115.14, would take the market through that level to approximately $116.00. The reason for this theory is due to the weak handed amateur shorts in the market. When any major stock or market hits a key major resistance level, amateurs and pros will sell or short it. That creates the key resistance at that level and the reason for the markets to stall. The key is to understand the institutional money and realize they will push the market through this level to scare the amateur shorts out of the market, grabbing their money. When the $115.14 level was hit, traders shorted the market. Sure enough, the market was driven higher today, jumping to $116.00. Once the weak hands are out, the market can then fall and institutions bank even more money.
This is a sad but true fact of the markets. We must all understand the game. I said to my premium subscribers in last nights Research Center video that I would look for the markets to go to $116.00. Sure enough, that is the high range of the day. Since then, the markets have faded beautifully. Learn the game, profit from the game.
The markets today are hovering flat, after a gap higher. The gap higher came on the back of 8:30am ET Retail Sales numbers that were slightly better than expected. As soon as the market opened, it dumped. The selling continued on some poor consumer sentiment numbers. The University of Michigan index came in less than expected. The markets sold from a high of the day on the SPY at $115.97, all the way to a low of $115.14. Notice the number of the low of the day? Yes, the previous 52 week high. Poetic in many ways. Since that low, the markets have gone sideways to higher, floating on extremely light Friday volume.
Stocks In Motion
Potash Corp. Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) gapped higher today on the back of comments from the company. They said their earnings would be higher for the first quarter. Potash Corp. stated earnings would be in the range of $1.30-$1.50, well above the initial guidance of $0.70-$1.00 per share. The stock soared almost 7% on the day.
The financial sector is strong today and one of the main reasons the markets are holding flat on the day and not selling. The key today seems to be Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS). This stock is single handedly keeping the markets up. Goldman Sachs is higher by 1.40% today.
Another key to the markets holding flat is clearly Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). The technology sector is not very strong today but Apple is making up for it. The stock continues to hold most of its gains today up $1.36 to $226.86. Optimism over the release of the IPAD is still luring buyers into the stock. Both Goldman Sachs and Apple Computer are near term overbought and due for pullbacks. However, due to the light volume this may be hard to come by.
The last key to the market holding up today instead of selling hard is the dollar. The dollar is getting hammered. As the dollar drops, bids come in the market. To understand this one must understand money flow and commodities in relation to the dollar. When money flows out of the dollar it looks for someplace else to go. Someplace where returns will be decent. The answer to that is stocks. In addition, when the dollar drops, commodities must move higher to compensate. As commodities jump, so do commodity stocks which are now a huge part of the S&P 500. Therefore, this takes the markets up a little as well.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…
By Gareth Soloway on March 12th, 2010 12:02pm Eastern Time
As I research the markets day after day, I find some interesting technical signals and signs recurring. One that I mentioned recently was in relation to the previous 52 week high on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). The previous 52 week high was $115.14, until it was taken out over the last few days. My previous thesis and call was that the institutions, seeing the markets hit the 52 week high of $115.14, would take the market through that level to approximately $116.00. The reason for this theory is due to the weak handed amateur shorts in the market. When any major stock or market hits a key major resistance level, amateurs and pros will sell or short it. That creates the key resistance at that level and the reason for the markets to stall. The key is to understand the institutional money and realize they will push the market through this level to scare the amateur shorts out of the market, grabbing their money. When the $115.14 level was hit, traders shorted the market. Sure enough, the market was driven higher today, jumping to $116.00. Once the weak hands are out, the market can then fall and institutions bank even more money.
This is a sad but true fact of the markets. We must all understand the game. I said to my premium subscribers in last nights Research Center video that I would look for the markets to go to $116.00. Sure enough, that is the high range of the day. Since then, the markets have faded beautifully. Learn the game, profit from the game.
The markets today are hovering flat, after a gap higher. The gap higher came on the back of 8:30am ET Retail Sales numbers that were slightly better than expected. As soon as the market opened, it dumped. The selling continued on some poor consumer sentiment numbers. The University of Michigan index came in less than expected. The markets sold from a high of the day on the SPY at $115.97, all the way to a low of $115.14. Notice the number of the low of the day? Yes, the previous 52 week high. Poetic in many ways. Since that low, the markets have gone sideways to higher, floating on extremely light Friday volume.
Stocks In Motion
Potash Corp. Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) gapped higher today on the back of comments from the company. They said their earnings would be higher for the first quarter. Potash Corp. stated earnings would be in the range of $1.30-$1.50, well above the initial guidance of $0.70-$1.00 per share. The stock soared almost 7% on the day.
The financial sector is strong today and one of the main reasons the markets are holding flat on the day and not selling. The key today seems to be Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS). This stock is single handedly keeping the markets up. Goldman Sachs is higher by 1.40% today.
Another key to the markets holding flat is clearly Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). The technology sector is not very strong today but Apple is making up for it. The stock continues to hold most of its gains today up $1.36 to $226.86. Optimism over the release of the IPAD is still luring buyers into the stock. Both Goldman Sachs and Apple Computer are near term overbought and due for pullbacks. However, due to the light volume this may be hard to come by.
The last key to the market holding up today instead of selling hard is the dollar. The dollar is getting hammered. As the dollar drops, bids come in the market. To understand this one must understand money flow and commodities in relation to the dollar. When money flows out of the dollar it looks for someplace else to go. Someplace where returns will be decent. The answer to that is stocks. In addition, when the dollar drops, commodities must move higher to compensate. As commodities jump, so do commodity stocks which are now a huge part of the S&P 500. Therefore, this takes the markets up a little as well.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…
By Gareth Soloway on March 12th, 2010 12:02pm Eastern Time
As I research the markets day after day, I find some interesting technical signals and signs recurring. One that I mentioned recently was in relation to the previous 52 week high on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). The previous 52 week high was $115.14, until it was taken out over the last few days. My previous thesis and call was that the institutions, seeing the markets hit the 52 week high of $115.14, would take the market through that level to approximately $116.00. The reason for this theory is due to the weak handed amateur shorts in the market. When any major stock or market hits a key major resistance level, amateurs and pros will sell or short it. That creates the key resistance at that level and the reason for the markets to stall. The key is to understand the institutional money and realize they will push the market through this level to scare the amateur shorts out of the market, grabbing their money. When the $115.14 level was hit, traders shorted the market. Sure enough, the market was driven higher today, jumping to $116.00. Once the weak hands are out, the market can then fall and institutions bank even more money.
This is a sad but true fact of the markets. We must all understand the game. I said to my premium subscribers in last nights Research Center video that I would look for the markets to go to $116.00. Sure enough, that is the high range of the day. Since then, the markets have faded beautifully. Learn the game, profit from the game.
The markets today are hovering flat, after a gap higher. The gap higher came on the back of 8:30am ET Retail Sales numbers that were slightly better than expected. As soon as the market opened, it dumped. The selling continued on some poor consumer sentiment numbers. The University of Michigan index came in less than expected. The markets sold from a high of the day on the SPY at $115.97, all the way to a low of $115.14. Notice the number of the low of the day? Yes, the previous 52 week high. Poetic in many ways. Since that low, the markets have gone sideways to higher, floating on extremely light Friday volume.
Stocks In Motion
Potash Corp. Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) gapped higher today on the back of comments from the company. They said their earnings would be higher for the first quarter. Potash Corp. stated earnings would be in the range of $1.30-$1.50, well above the initial guidance of $0.70-$1.00 per share. The stock soared almost 7% on the day.
The financial sector is strong today and one of the main reasons the markets are holding flat on the day and not selling. The key today seems to be Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS). This stock is single handedly keeping the markets up. Goldman Sachs is higher by 1.40% today.
Another key to the markets holding flat is clearly Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). The technology sector is not very strong today but Apple is making up for it. The stock continues to hold most of its gains today up $1.36 to $226.86. Optimism over the release of the IPAD is still luring buyers into the stock. Both Goldman Sachs and Apple Computer are near term overbought and due for pullbacks. However, due to the light volume this may be hard to come by.
The last key to the market holding up today instead of selling hard is the dollar. The dollar is getting hammered. As the dollar drops, bids come in the market. To understand this one must understand money flow and commodities in relation to the dollar. When money flows out of the dollar it looks for someplace else to go. Someplace where returns will be decent. The answer to that is stocks. In addition, when the dollar drops, commodities must move higher to compensate. As commodities jump, so do commodity stocks which are now a huge part of the S&P 500. Therefore, this takes the markets up a little as well.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…
By Nicholas Santiago on March 11th, 2010 3:46pm Eastern Time
Baidu Inc (NASDAQ:BIDU) and Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) are undoubtedly two internet market leaders. When someone searches the internet for something in the U.S. they say 'just Google it'. Google Inc is not only a household name it has also over taken the entire search market surpassing Microsoft Corp's (NASDAQ:MSFT) search engine called Bing and the old search engine leader Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ:YHOO). Google Inc has also moved into different areas of technology including cell phones, online books, and countless computer applications.
Baidu Inc is viewed by many as the Google of China. It is the most popular search engine in China beating out Google Inc by a large margin in that country. It is important to realize that China's population does have more than 1.2 billion people and the market is growing. Recently Google Inc and the Chinese government have not seen eye to eye when it comes to proprietary technology secrets and censorship. Please realize while China is now the worlds new growth engine it still a communist country and the government controls most of the media content. Baidu Inc has capitalized from this recent conflict from Google Inc and the Chinese government.
Technically speaking both stocks are in technical uptrend's. However, Baidu Inc is at a new all time high with major resistance at 550.00, 575.00, 588.00, and 600.00 levels. The stock is extended and overbought from it's January breakout, therefore, each of these levels could see pullbacks.
Google has rallied throughout February and March trading above it's important daily 50 and 200 moving averages. However, the 585.00 level is a very good short term resistance area for Google Inc stock. The next important near term resistance levels for Google Inc are 592.00, 605.00, and 615.00. The stock is also well below it's January high of 629.00.
These are the pro's and cons of Google and Baidu Inc. Currently both stocks could be poise to pullback due to a short term overbought and extended move on the charts.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on March 11th, 2010 1:46pm Eastern Time
As a Chief Market Strategist, I love to look at charts, analyze and discover swing trades in any direction. It is like going through old baseball cards and not sure when I will find the Mickey Mantle or Babe Ruth or better yet, sifting through sand or dirt and finding diamonds. The markets today are showing a little bit of weakness but the continued light volume is keeping them from selling to any significant point. The formation on the charts from yesterday is a clear triangle pattern which dictates consolidation from the up move early in the week. The big question is, which way will the markets go? Will we break through the key resistance at $115.15 - $115.30 or stall out, collapsing lower on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY).
Jobless Claims were reported today in line with estimates. The Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 462,000.
The strongest stock of the day goes International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM). It is soaring higher by 1.55% or $2.00. This is one of the key components of the DOW. As a result, this is probably adding close to 20 points alone to the index. With the DOW flat on the day, just imagine where it would be if IBM was flat. Probably -25 or so.
The massive resistance slam down play goes to Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). AMZN is higher by about 2%. The stock has had a solid move up in the last couple weeks but is heading into major resistance. As a technical trader, I follow the charts closely. If you connect the 52 week high made on 12/03/2009 and the secondary pivot on made on 12/29/2009, that line will yield the current price of AMZN at $133.00 - $133.50. Be on alert, this looks like a short term top on Amazon.com.
The market continues to hover around the flat line. Keep an eye on IBM. Should it start to drop, the markets could fall back nicely. In addition, watch AMZN at current levels. A pull back on the daily chart is likely off this technical level.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Revisiting the S&P500 and VIX charts in Monday's article showing how the S&P500 / VIX ratio is unable to break above the 65 resistance. 65 = the ratio. A higher ratio corresponds to higher S&P relative to VIX, hence bullish for markets and vice versa. Today, the S&P500 / VIX Ratio is at 60, down 5 points from Monday, which supports my anticipation for underperformance in S&P500 relative to the VIX. My forecast for a Chinese rate hike tomorrow (see previous note) and possible disappointment in US retail sales could well drag down the ratio further down. Note how that 65 level also coincided with the 200-weel moving average. http://bit.ly/b3SlDwRead more…
