I really thought we had finished this down move with price apprently basing at 1.34, but now I'm defo proved wrong. I guess Ellioticians will be saying this is the start of the 5th and final wave now - the 1st to 4th are clearly visible I think. Apparently the 1st and 5th Wave are often the same height, and if so, that takes price back down to 1.29 area. It's not a definate though, because Elliot is often difficult to count in realtime, and failures to patterns do happen. Ignore the odd little lines on this chart please :)
Read more…
Largely rangebound PA on the daily since last year, though weekly chart looks like ascending triangle. We may see a reasonable break above 90.25 soon. I plan on buying at 88.00 if that happens before my theoretical breakout, and PA looks good? Lets see how the PA develops anyway.Mostly I see missed opportunities on this chart :)
Read more…
Technicals say short to me, but the interest rate differential may make this less attractive?I've had one nice short out of this so far, and will be looking for another short entry on retrace next week. If we do take out 0.8575, then my next target would 0.8200
Read more…
By Nicholas Santiago on March 26th, 2010 3:24pm Eastern Time
As many of our subscribers know by now, rarely do the markets decline sharply on a Friday. Today the major indexes such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), and the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQQ) have all reversed earlier gains but, remain near the unchanged mark for the day.
Many traders and investors would think the markets would decline further after the news out of Asia reported a possible conflict between North and South Korea. While this news has not been confirmed, gold has spiked on the worries. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) is trading higher today by more than 1.40 to 108.26.
While trading volume is usually very light on a Friday, however, we believe there is something more to this flat to positive close on Friday phenomenon. Over the past year or so we have had very few Friday's that have been down significantly on a Friday. In the past year there have been about 7-8 Friday's when the market has been down over 100 points. Therefore, today is really not a surprise to see the market trade around the flat line into the close.
Remember, the institutional money that controls the movements of the market does not want to spook the Asian markets over the weekend. This weekend Asia could be exceptionally sensitive due to the geopolitical events in North and South Korea. Second, most stock market crashes that occurred have happened on Monday's. This is because the negative sentiment and momentum build up over the weekend, culminating on Monday. Third, the powers that be do not want a bad headline on the evening news when people are getting ready to shop and spend money over the weekend. Remember, the average person will watch the news or read the newspaper over the weekend and just glance at the Friday's numbers in the stock markets. They are not paying attention to the day to day movements. This is why we call this the “Friday Effect.”
Read more…
By Gareth Soloway on March 26th, 2010 2:25pm Eastern Time
The markets, for the second day in a row have reversed earlier gains, dropping back to the flat line. The reversal yesterday, came at my master $118.15 level on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). So far, this level looks to have signaled a short term downtrend in the markets. Whether or not it turns out to be anything bigger, I will discuss in tonights nightly technical analysis video, which is part of the Research Center.
Today, the volume trends continue to be the same. Any bounce in the market are not because of major buying but because of lack of selling. Any drops in the market are because there is volume behind them.
The markets seem to be tempting a key pivot point. What do I mean by this? After yesterdays monster reversal, the market looks to give signals on whether or not it will be just a one or two day affair or something larger that could last a week or maybe more. I am currently crunching all the data on this. I did find it very interesting that yesterday, on good news, the markets were not able to hold their gains. Today, even more interesting, the dollar is lower and the markets still dumped out. For the first time in quite some time, the positives on the market are unable to hold it up.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) is among the weaker stocks today, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) continues to try and hold on to recent gains. These two stocks over the last few days have been very much the opposite of one and other. It seems that there is fear of financial regulation with Goldman Sachs in regards to its risky trading. JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand is looked at as much more of a pure bank. While both stocks are up over the last few weeks, JPMorgan has continued to soar while Goldman Sachs has stalled. Technically speaking, both stocks are overbought and in need of a small correction. It looks like it is underway with Goldman Sachs but still hard to come by for JPMorgan Chase.
Other stocks hitting my watch list for a possible pullback after crazy gains are United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) and Baidu, Inc.(ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU). Bloated is the only way to describe them.
To get more information, calls, guidance and analysis, join the Research Center at InTheMoneyStocks.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…
: The impact of interest rate differentials on FX is highlighted by the fact that the correlation between EURUSD and GE-US 10-year yields is now at +0.90, the highest since June 2007. Gold remains under pressure despite improved risk appetite and a retreating USD, which is partially explained by FX traders reluctance to short the metal ahead of next weeks conclusion of Fed MBS purchases. Gold remains below $1,100, while silver unable to regain $17.00, thus, in line with our medium term outlook for and $1,065 and $14.80 respectively. EURUSD testing 10-day resistance of $1.3420, a break above which (weekly close) would call up $1.3460-65. GBPUSD seen capped at $1.4950-55. Interestingly, USD doing better vs CAD and AUD than vs EUR and GBP.
Read more…
By Gareth Soloway on March 26th, 2010 11:40am Eastern Time
The markets are trading higher today, retracing approximately 50% of the drop yesterday, from the highs of the day to the lows of the day. It was a monstrous reversal in the last two hours of trading. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) hit my master level at $118.15, crossing it by $.02. Then, as if the end of the world had come, the markets dropped like a rock. Again, today we are seeing a 50% retrace of that move, at this point in the day.
The markets got a little economic news today. The final numbers on GDP were released at 8:30am ET. GDP was revised down to 5.6% growth. While this did show lower growth than originally thought, it was well within a range that the markets could handle. Futures did not move much on this. With the GDP numbers a neutral indicator on the markets, at 9:30am ET, the U.S markets opened slightly higher on the back of a weaker dollar. Overnight, European countries continued to hammer out deals for Greece. This continues to make the overall Greek issue look like less of a big deal and thus cause a bounce in the Euro. In response, the dollar drops and the markets get a bid.
With the markets trading slightly higher, Michigan Sentiment was released at 9:55am ET. This also came out approximately in line with expectations. The dollar began to drop. As that happened the markets caught a great bid. They shot higher and as I mentioned earlier, are now hovering around the 50% retrace level, up about a half percent on the day.
Key stocks to watch today include Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). Apple Inc. crossed the $230 level a few days ago. For two days it stayed weak, not leading the market. Today it caught a sizable bid and is taking technology higher. It has crossed the $230 level. I have a major area of resistance and possible short term top between $230 - $235. This area should be watched very closely. Apple Inc. will be releasing their IPAD in April. This could be a classic sell the news type event from the recent run up.
Chevron and Exxon have been under pressure of late as well. While much of the market has ripped higher, these two stocks have stalled. Not the case today. These two stocks are loving the weakness in the dollar and powering forward. They are definitely leaders today and keeping this market up. If the dollar moves lower, these two stocks can continue to get a bid and help the market stay up.
Lastly, keep in mind you may be getting a little window dressing today. With the quarter coming to an end, look for money managers to put outperforming stocks in their portfolios. When the individual, average investor gets their quarterly statement, it makes it look like the money manager held that stock all quarter. This can help some of the recent leaders like Apple Inc. be higher today.
Join the Research Center at InTheMoneyStocks to get more guidance on the markets, calls on stocks, commodities, currencies and of course, countless hours of video, education and analysis.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Read more…
