shraf's interview on BNN discussing the latest sizes regarding Greece aid. http://bit.ly/dCDjhJ Euro and global markets rebounded on talk of a EUR 12- bln package, which was later not confirmed. Latest indications mention a final deal early next week, but amounts are stilk uknown. TODAY's FOMC DECISION (18:15 GMT) may continue the DOVISH LANGUAGE of keeping "extended period" in the statement, but WATCH OUT out From the possibility that one more FOMC member (in addition to Kansas Feds Hoenig) will dissent with the FOMCs dovish stance. St Louis Feds Bullard has recently suggested changing the extended period phrase. Any additional dissenters would be hawkish and USD-positive.
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By Gareth Soloway on April 28th, 2010 12:30pm Eastern Time
The markets are floating around the flat line ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates at 2:15pm ET. The comments will be significant to the markets because of the problems coming out of Europe and the recent strength in the U.S. Dollar. With major issues spreading in Europe, the dollar has jumped in recent days and has trended higher for months. Interest rates themselves are expected to remain at current levels but the markets should get a surge in volume and a move based off their comments going forward. In general, it is expected that they will continue their relaxed policies towards tightening rates. Whatever is said, watch the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP). Wall Street expects the markets to head in the opposite direction of the dollar following the Federal Reserve Policy Statement.
To look for the stocks lagging in this market, one need not look further than Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). Yesterday was the biggest drop in AAPL stock in months. Today, there is follow through selling. AAPL has jumped recently on the back of the debut of the IPAD and an amazing quarterly report. Another lagging stock would be is Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). Ever since AMZN reported their earnings late last week, the stock has been under pressure.
Lastly, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) continues to be under significant pressure. Just three days ago it hit a double top and 5 year high. Yesterday morning they reported earnings. While the earnings were solid, the stock was priced for spectacular earnings. It has fallen off a cliff in the last couple days, dropping from a beautiful double top to the 50 moving average at $12.95. This will be some short term support. Should it break this level, look for the next support to be at $12.30.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
To get more in-depth analysis, along with exact entries/exits, swing trades, and scalp trades, join our Research Center or Intra Day Stock Chat NOW and join the ranks of the Pros!
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By Nicholas Santiago on April 28th, 2010 12:51pm Eastern Time
The Greece worries have been lingering for months now. It seemed that every week, the media would report that a bailout plan was in place yet it still has not happened. It reminds me of the boy who cried wolf. One day reports say a bailout by the European Union is a done deal, the next day it does not happen. Back and forth we go. Then the media reports a bailout by the International Monetary Fund(IMF) and it still does not happen. Now the other PIIGS are starting to fall.
Today Spain has been downgraded by S&P to negative. Portugal was already downgraded. It is obvious that other nations are next to fall such as Ireland, and Italy. The Euro currency continues to get pounded against the U.S. Dollar. When the dollar rises it simply puts pressure on inflationary stocks and most commodities. Recently the Proshares DB US Dollar Index (NYSE:UUP) is higher by 0.77 cents since April 14th, 2010. While this may not sound like much this is a big move in the currency markets. Simply put, the dollar is only rallying higher due to the weakness in Europe.
The Currencyshares Euro Trust (NYSE:FXE) which tracks the Euro has sold off over 5.00 points since April 14th, 2010. Then we have the British Pound which is not doing much better than the Euro. The British Pound can be tracked by using the Currencyshares British Pound ETF (NYSE:FXB). While the British Pound is not part of the European Union the currency is in rather poor shape. However, it is trading off it's March 25th, 2010 low of 147.48. The daily British Pound chart still looks weak.
The important point to remember is when the U.S. Dollar declines this will usually benefit the market. Watch an intra-day dollar chart and you will clearly see how the dollar and the stock indexes will often trade inverse to each other tick for tick.
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GOLD STAND OUT FROM COMMODITY DAMAGE as the yellow metal soars over $25 to hit new 2010 high at 1172. But the fact that silver, copper and oil each fell sharply today, underlines the knee-jerk reaction of safe-haven buying after the Greece-Portugal downgrades and the questioning of Goldman Sachs. VIX JUMPS 5.30 to 22.81 or 31%, making its 6th largest daily close since records began in 1993, closing ABOVE ITS 55, 100 and 200-DAY MA IN A SINGLE DAY. We have seen over the past 5 months that surging VIX and falling stocks have impacted gold negatively. Combining the escalation in market uncertainty as measured by these historical metrics as well as the potential for tightening policy, gold could face some headwindsespecially if tomorrows FOMC statement removes the extended period phrase. AUSSIE Q1 CPI due at 1:30 am GMT could be especially AUD bearish in the event of CPI comes in at or below 2.5% y/y and/no moir than +0.7% q/q. Any rebound from high CPI is seen capping AUDUSD at 0.9230.
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By Trader X on April 27th, 2010 3:12pm Eastern Time
Today the dollar has made new highs for the year. The new high is not really that important. What is important is that the dollar made a new high during regular trading hours. Usually the dollar will trade higher overnight and sell off or fade after the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Today the dollar has rallied during the course of the day putting pressure on most commodities and inflationary stocks. Now please realize that if the dollar sells off from here the market will rally or bounce off the the lows.
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EURO Slammed as GREECE DOWNGRADED TO JUNK STATUS (BB+/B) and PORTUGAL DOWNGRADED by 2 notches to A-/A-2. PORTUGAL. Portugal's public debt is expected to rise to E142.91 billion in 2010, or 85.4% of GDP. We WARNED you on April 7 against the DANGERS OF SOARING Gold vs OIL and the negative implications on stocks. Today, Gold/Oil Ratio surges to 14.10, highest since February, leading to falling equities, just as was warned in the chart below http://chart.ly/gnf2h2 OIL drops below 82.70 target to 82.30, while gold soars on safehaven but needing to close the session above 1161.
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By InTheMoneyStocks.com on April 27th, 2010 12:09pm Eastern Time
The markets are getting hammered today, following the S&P 500 small down day yesterday. Could a second down day in a row be in order? These have been few and far between in the last few months and could spell confirmation of a top in place.
One has to be somewhat amused by the sharp sell off in the markets occurring while Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) gets grilled by the Senate. It has to continue to make people wonder if there is a battle ragging here or a little flexing by Goldman Sachs' muscle. Grill us? We slam the markets.
Granted, by no means is it surprising to see the sharp sell off. Many leading stocks are near their 2007 highs. These 2007 highs coincide with the best times in the last multi decade period in the economy when money was free and houses were 100% higher. With free money being printed by the government in the form of stimulus and the Federal Reserve printing trillions more, the markets are up nearly 100% off the March 2009 lows and many stocks are near those 2007 highs. You almost get the sense a crash would be in order, a little smack in the face for the pigs who kept loading the boat in recent weeks.
While Goldman Sachs is getting grilled, Portugal had its debt rating downgraded and was given a negative outlook. This is just one of the negatives the market has to realize in the coming months. Greece was just the tip of the iceberg. What about the next half dozen countries that need bailouts? It is coming.
Financial reform is coming to a financial company near you. That is a fact now, just a matter of time. Unemployment is still 9.7% according to the government and those of us in the know, realize it is much higher, around 18%.
So does it shock anyone to really see a sharp down day today? Perhaps only because we know how manipulated the markets can be. However, volume today is huge. That makes it very hard to hold it up in this environment.
3M Company (NYSE:MMM) reported solid earnings today. It is one of the only bright spots in the DOW. While Goldman Sachs is actually flat on the day, other financial stocks are being hammered. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is being rocked, down over 3% on the day. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) is down over 2%. Retailers are also getting slammed with the Retail HOLDRs (ETF) (NYSE:RTH) down 2%. Retailers have been one of the best performing sectors in the last few months. Stocks like Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE:RL) nearing 2007 highs and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY) over 2007 highs.
Bottom line is this, today the markets may see confirmation on the charts. This is a key signal InTheMoneyStocks uses to determine whether more downside will come. The market has been propped up for months now, every small sell being bought and the markets pushed higher. Technically speaking, a correction is long overdue. Let's see where this market ends today. There are still hours to go.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
To get more in-depth analysis, along with exact entries/exits, swing trades, and scalp trades, join our Research Center or Intra Day Stock Chat NOW and join the ranks of the Pros!
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By Nicholas Santiago on April 27th, 2010 12:43pm Eastern Time
The major market indexes are trading sharply lower after Greece, and Portugal's lowered credit rating fears increased on Wall Street. This all comes as Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) is testifying on Capitol Hill. While these and many other problems are weighing on the markets, it is the commodity stocks that are getting hit hard today and leading the indexes lower.
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX) is the leading copper stock and often referred to as a stock market barometer. The stock has struggled lately and is selling off sharply today. Currently the stock is down over $4.00 points to $76.08. This company represents growth as copper is the leading commodity in economic expansion. The stock will now have short term daily chart support at the $74.50 level.
The next major commodity name that is selling off sharply today is Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF). This stock is a leading name in iron ore which is another major commodity that is often viewed for economic expansion. Today the stock is lower by $3.78 to $69.20. The stock will have some short term support at the $65.00 and $60.00 area on the daily charts.
Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) is a leading global integrated oil company and a major Dow Jones Industrial Average component. This stock is selling off sharply, trading lower by nearly $2.00 points to $80.65. This stock will have short term daily chart support at the $79.00 and $76.00 area.
When the leading commodity names decline this is often a clear indication that the markets are weak. These leading names represent economic growth. When global economic growth fails to expand the markets could face some major headwinds going forward.
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By Gareth Soloway on April 27th, 2010 11:35am Eastern Time
As a Chief Market Strategist, swing trader and day trader, I watch the markets like a hawk every second of every day. Time and time again, I have seen stocks go parabolic since the February 5th, 2010 low. They have soared to levels not seen since the good old days in 2007.
Then, just yesterday I saw major stocks making key topping tails. A topping tail is a major bearish candle pattern that is known to signal a top in a stock or a market with a high probability. The first stocks I saw the topping tail on was The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD). HD has soared in recent months moving back towards the 2007 highs. Yesterday, early on, HD hit a high of $37.03. By the end of the day, it closed at $36.49. The chart on the daily had a clear topping tail and a major reversal signal in place.
The next stock I had to check was Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW). I wanted to see if this sister company confirmed what I was seeing on HD. Sure enough, it did. LOW hit a high yesterday of $28.54 before closing at the lows of the day at $28.16. The builders and anything having to do with growth has been ripping of late on the seemingly obvious government spending rebound in the economy. This was a big signal to me.
Other stocks showed the same pattern. In fact, many out there. Just to name a few, take a look at Prudential Financial, Inc. (NYSE:PRU) and Hartford Financial Services (NYSE:HIG). Both of these had beautiful topping tails yesterday and are getting crushed today.
Home Depot and Lowe's are both down over 2% today as well. The topping tail signal is one of the best in the technical arsenal for a swing trader or day trader. I alerted all my members in the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat to these formations yesterday. They are enjoying the profits today!
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Watch Ashrafs video presentation comparing the current euro downleg with the last major 3 declines over the last 11 years, and why the losses could extend farther http://bit.ly/brTi5j GBP is the worst performing G11 currency of the day, dragged down by the lowest rise in net mortgage lending since Jul. $1.5280 stands as next support after inability to break $1.55.
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