As shown in [this chart], the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) commodity index has tracked the S&P, with a slight lag, since mid-1998. Gold and silver have also joined in the latest stock rally. As I see it, this correlation means that most assets lately are moving up and down more or less together, probably as liquidity expands and contracts.Conquer the Crash (1st ed., p. 204)
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In the meantime, we present the Spanish 10 year. We wonder if Olli Rehn is already practicing his first speech as Viceroy of Catalonia.
Now that Ireland is a vassal state of the EU, and its democracy as its citizens know it, is finished, it was only a matter of time before the EU's Economic Affairs counsel started telling Ireland what and how to conduct its affairs. Sure enough, it took all of 24 hours between the "bailout" and the first order. RTE reports that Olli Rehn "says it would not be advisable for any new government to try to renegotiate key aspects of the IMF/EU deal." In other words, the EU is promptly realizing that the new Irish government is likely to reneg in part or all of the just struck deal and is therefore interjecting itself in the process. "In an interview with RTÉ News, Commissioner Rehn said it did not want to involve himself in democratic politics in Ireland, but he said: 'They are key parts of the programme so I would not advise re-opening these'." In other words, despite hating to do so, Rehn is now supreme dictator of Ireland, and the nation must do his every bidding if it wishes to not receive the Mutual Assured Destruction treatment and not get any banker Holiday greetings cards this year.He said he 'fully understood' the frustration and anger of the Irish people about the banking sector, which he said had made big mistakes in the past. 'However we have to move on and the essential thing is to complete the repair, implying both the restructuring and downsizing of the banking system,' he said.Of course, only those moving on are the bankers who get no impairments whatsoever, while Irish taxpayers, now in perpetual servitude to the plutocrats, are forced to pray that potato famines do not make a sudden reappearance.The one thing the corpulent bureaucrat is most opposed to is preserving the illusion that Irish pensions are for anything but pension funding:On the use of the NTMA's cash buffer and the pension reserve fund, Mr Rehn said: 'These are part of the programme in terms of self-financing by Ireland. It increases the ownership and commitment of Ireland to the success of the programme, and it is also important for other EU member states because this package will have to be adopted in all the other euro area member states.'Mr Rehn said he did not see any tensions or reservations in other member states approving the loan. 'I trust there is the same sense of responsibility and solidarity both for Ireland and Europe as a whole,' he stated.As to why bankers once again get away scot free, here it is: Mutual Assured Destruction:Mr Rehn denied there was any difference of opinion between the ECB, the European Commission and the IMF on whether or not senior bondholders should be 'burned' in the Irish banking sector.He said senior debt would not be jeopardised, otherwise there could be the risk of further contagion in the system.Of course, this is a lie as various states had expressly indicated an interest in senior impairments. But who cares. Fat politicians have to be bribed and fed. That's all that matters.
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Posted by dentist 007 on November 29, 2010 at 4:42pm
hi folksbbmac/stewart macnab will talk about support/resistance and identifying potential support/resistancejamie"d has kindly got us a great venue at foley street.it is free.spaces are limited.should be a good talk/open discussionplease send a pm,if you would like to gofoley street is near charlotte street..nearest tube is Warren street..i think
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You will notice that during the two parts (70 to 75 and then 76 to 80) of the gold bull market, industrial production turned down significantly. Also, note that the downturn occured towards the end of those gold rallies and, in the case of the second one, continued until after the end of the gold rally.We are on a downward economic activity trend, and this should accelerate and continue until debt levels are acceptable for a new economic boom. I believe this will take at least 10 years.
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Merrill's Mary Ann Bartels looks at a slew of technicals today, and focuses on the most relevant one for the day: the EURUSD, although she focuses on the dollar basket DXY. According to her Fibonacci analysis, the EURUSD has a 50% retracement target of 81.49, which "would correlate to a move in the euro to 1.3124." As the EURUSD is trading inside of 1.31 now, this means that purely based on the EUR contribution to the DXY, there is a short-term arb opportunity of going long the DXY which is at 80.90 and selling the EURUSD. Then again, with a firesale in everything EUR related a short leg may not even be required, especially with complete lack of liquidity in the market, and a total lack of appreciation that the US will have to print far more before all this is over.
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China’s inflation is expected to hit a new high in November on the heel of several months’ boom, increasing possibilities of interest rates hikes, according to the country’s analysts.China consumer product index, the main gauge of inflation, is likely to rise above 4.4 percent in November, according to a consensus forecast made by several financial institutions including China International Capital Corporation （CICC）, one of the country’s largest banking company.CICC predicted China’s CPI to rise 4.8 percent in December and decline in the first quarter of next year while remaining modest since then.With CPI running at a high level, the government is likely to raise its interest rates twice by 25 basis points each before 2011, mostly likely in December and the first half of net year, the CICC said in a latest report.The increase of November CPI is projected at 4.7 percent by Dong Xianan, chief analyst from Industrial Securities, who warned over continuing inflation risks.Industrial Bank said the CPI is expected to rise 4.8 percent against the seasonal adjustment, adding that the central bank is likely to continue with its resolve to fight back inflation by hiking interest rate between December 7 to 18.China’s CPI rose 4.4 percent in October, the highest level in two years. Efforts has been stepped up since November by the government to curb recent surge in food prices, and the inflation expectations have been “stabilized,” according to chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics Yao Jingyuan.
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