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EUR: TWO DOWN, FOUR MORE HURDLES TO OVERCOME

1.     Win no Confidence Vote

2.     Get Parliament to Approve Austerity Plan

3.     Get Parliament to Approve Implementation Procedure

4.     Get EU/IMF to Release Next Tranche of Aid

5.     EU/IMF Needs to Come up With a Second Rescue Plan for Greece

6.     Rating Agencies need to be convinced that the Rescue Plan does not constitute a default

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Dow Elliott Wave analysis

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From an Elliott Wave perspective there are two possible scenarios on the cards right now.

 

The most likely IMO is that we have had a double zig zag correction (marked in red) so we have seen ABCXABC and now we have wave 1 up, wave 2 correction followed by a strong rally for wave 3.

 

The second choice is a triple zig zag correction which means we have ABCXABCYABC before a rally (shown in blue)

 

Both scenarios lead to a major rally. Looking at the futures price after hours tonight I think the first setup is most likely as we seem to have broken out from this downward channel that started way back on 2nd May.

 

I guess Greece may provide the answer tomorrow!

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