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The major stock market indexes have certainly been volatile during the month of August. The recent stock market swings in both directions have been outright violent at times. Many traders and investors have had to even step back and allow the markets to calm down at times before trying initiate a long or short position. There has been one stock that has foretold the action in the major stock indexes, this stock is J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM). When JPM stock trades higher on the day the major stock market indexes trade higher, when JPM stock declines the major stock indexes seem to decline. After all, this is a banking crisis, so why not follow the most important bank in the United States and arguably the entire world. This morning, JPM stock is trading higher by 0.23 cents to $35.02 a share. Traders can watch for short term intra-day resistance around the $35.50 area. Should the important financial giant decline during the session the stock will have intra-day support around the $34.00 level. 

Other important financial stocks that traders should follow closely include Blackrock Inc.(NYSE:BLK), Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE:CS), and Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB). These financial institutions are some of the most powerful in the world. Each of these stocks can lead the markets at any given time, however, JPM stock is the most important.
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The stock market is chopping around the flat line today as it digests the gains from yesterday. After a major technical breakout created a massive move higher, all eyes are turning towards an annual speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday. The market is hoping and praying for some new stimulus measures to initiate growth in the U.S. economy. The markets will likely trend neutral to higher into that meeting as shorts continue to exit positions.

If Bernanke disappoints, the markets may see a pull back. However, based on the charts this pull back should not take stocks to new lows. This would just be a pull back that would ultimately be negated by a move higher next week. In addition, should Ben Bernanke deliver a positive statement on Friday, the markets could easily continue their party higher.

It is somewhat unlikely the Federal Reserve Chairman will give the markets actual action. However, positive backing to the economy and reassurance is likely to occur. Regardless of the comments Bernanke makes on Friday, and the initial reaction, the markets should chop higher into the holiday weekend of Labor Day. Upside potential on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is first at $119.50, then $121.00.

There are some great chart setups for swing trades into next week. To get these and proprietary technical analysis take the free trial of the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat. Join the services hedge funds utilize to make billions. Profit with the pros.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
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David Swensen gave us an insight into what he would say in a recent article in The New York Times. He has little confidence in the mutual fund industry, noting that it "...has employed market volatility to produce profits for itself far more reliably than it has produced returns for its investors." He has less regard for brokers and advisers, noting that: "Most understand too little about financial markets to make informed decisions, intervene too frequently in counterproductive ways and gather too little information about portfolio holdings to evaluate results."     http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-solin/real-experts-wont-explain_b_931280.html
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“He’s called up the Bank of England and he’s asked the Bank of England to ship the gold back to Venezuela and he’s built new vaults in Venezuela to hold his gold. 

Taking that altogether, what does it all mean?  Well, the reserve part of it, moving the dollars out of BIS and moving it into Russian and Chinese banks tells me that he’s worried about a freeze.  He’s worried about some kind of confrontation with the United States number one, but he’s probably worried the dollar itself.  

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/23_Rickards_-_Chavezs_Gold_Leased_to_JP_Morgan,_Barclays,_HSBC.html

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USD: THE FED'S 5 OPTIONS FOR JACKSON HOLE

 

1.     “We are also worried” – If the Fed opts to do nothing more than express their concern about the economy and give an ambiguous pledge to do all that is necessary, investors will be sorely disappointed.

2.     Extends 2013 pledge to Securities Portfolio – When the Fed met earlier this month, they tweaked the extended language sentence of their FOMC statement to say that the Fed Funds rate would remain at exceptionally low levels at least through mid 2013. They can opt to extend this pledge to their securities portfolio which leaves open the door to QE3 without explicitly initiating it.

3.     Operation Twist – The Fed could also bring back a tool used in the 1960s that twisted the yield curve by selling short term bonds and buying longer term bonds. This would drive short term yields up and long term yield down which effectively extends the maturity of their securities portfolio without increasing the balance sheet. This would be a more aggressive action than another language tweak (see #2).

4.     Reduce Interest on Reserves to ZIRP – The central bank could also cut the interest paid on reserves from 0.25 percent to 0 percent or cut swap line rates in order to bring down the tremendous amount of liquidity.

5.     Another Round of QE – The most aggressive options would be for the Fed to introduce another round of stimulus but given the level of inflation and the criticism of QE2, this option may be the least likely. One other possibility is inflation targeting but this “nuclear option” is so unlikely that it is not allocated its own category.

http://www.fx360.com/
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“Attorneys general in Virginia and Florida filed civil suits against BNY Mellon alleging that the bank cheated pension funds in those states by choosing improper prices for currency trades the bank processed for the funds,” The WSJ reports. “The Virginia lawsuit, filed in a Fairfax, Va., state court, cites internal bank emails allegedly showing that senior bank officials knew about, and endorsed, a currency-trading method that hurt state pensioners.”

http://www.fedupusa.org/2011/08/madoff-whistleblower-big-banks-are-ripping-off-pension-funds/

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The markets opened sharply higher as fears subsided across the globe. European markets saw some calm and the U.S. indexes surged higher into the stock markets open. Since the 9:30am ET open, the markets have faded continually all morning long. As the lunch hour arrives, the S&P 500 is flirting with the flat line.

The couple hours will determine whether or not this market collapses over the next few days. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) fell to a low of $112.65. This was the master gap fill level from the close on Friday. If the markets break through the lows of Friday and close below, the market will ultimately have another leg down and retest the pivot double bottom at $110.25. Again, the current level on the markets is insanely key to whether or not the markets inch higher in the coming days or head to the lows from two weeks ago. This is the pivot point of pivot points.

Find out exactly how to profit off the next move in the markets. Take the seven day free trial to the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat. Join the pros to profit with the pros.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
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The markets are holding just around the flat line today. Panic still remains and many believe another collapse is around the corner. While the average investor is beginning to panic, seasoned traders are avoiding emotion and looking at reality. When looking at reality they are buying for the short term, looking for a bounce. There are many signals pointing to the fact that the lows were in on August 9th, 2011 when the S&P 500 had a 70 point reversal off the lows.

First, the short term lows back on August 9th have not been taken out. Technically, this current pull back is a higher low. As long as that holds, it signals a move up coming. In addition, gold is at obscene levels. As it approaches 1900 per ounce, every small investor is jumping on the gold wagon. In the short term this spells distribution by institutions and a pull back. If gold falls from its over extended levels, money will flow into stocks. Next, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking at Jackson Hole on Friday. This is an annual event and just last year, at the very same event, he debuted the idea of QE2. This will keep shorts from shorting later this week and some shorts will cover. It may give the markets a short term bid. Lastly, the Labor Day Holiday weekend is fast approaching. It is rare to see a market collapse into a holiday. Generally, as volume dries up the markets rise.

These factors are all contingent on the pivot low holding on the S&P 500. This level on the SPY is $110.25. The SPY is the tracking ETF for the S&P. Many key stocks are at major support levels. A strong bounce should be around the corner. To get the next big money making trades, take the seven day free trial to the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat. Join the pros to profit with the pros.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
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  • U.S. has higher debt levels than even the “most difficult” country in Europe
  • Everyone surprised a bit by financial market turbulence of last weeks
  • Market correction on downside has been exaggerated
  • There is no sign of recession in Germany at the moment
  • Everything still pointing to growth rate of 3% in 2011, well above earlier forecasts this year

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/08/22/ecbs-schaeuble-euro-remains-a-stable-currency-markets-have-confidence-in-euro/

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