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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke kicked off a rally in the U.S. dollar this morning by sounding less dovish than everyone had anticipated. Coming off the heels of two abysmally weak non-farm payroll reports, investors around the world expected Bernanke to say I told you so and prepare the market for easier monetary policy this month.  Instead, the Fed Chairman downplayed the deterioration in job growth by saying that it may have been exaggerated by seasonal adjustments and unusually warm weather.  He sounded more moderate than dovish, causing the dollar to soar as traders reverse their QE3 bets.

 

http://www.fx360.com/?et_cid=21443096&et_rid=wallstreet1928@gmail.com

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Despite the recent stability in the financial markets, the outlook for global growth deteriorated significantly and the only reason why currencies and equities stabilized is because investors hope that European leaders will make a major announcement quickly. Many challenges need to be overcome before this can happen and negotiations can break down at anytime because at the end of the day, European nations are being asked to bear more pain in the near term. 

 

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kathy/7705/usd-will-fed-ease-before-ecb.aspx

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One of the most important event risks this week is Wednesday’s European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. The near term outlook for EUR/USD hinges on the ECB’s degree of proactiveness.  Throughout Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, the ECB has only been reactive but after avoiding the issue for weeks and constantly passing the ball back to politicians, ECB President Draghi will have no choice but to address the deterioration in economic data

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/Index.aspx

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