expect the euro to weaken if EU leaders fail to convince investors that progress is being made, but disappointing results may not be enough to drive the EUR/USD to a fresh 2 year low below 1.2288. This is because investors will quickly shift their hope over to next week's European Central Bank meeting. If the EU Summit doesn't go well and the markets react negatively to the outcome, everyone will look for the ECB to play the role of the white knight riding into the rescue. Now if the ECB fails to provide any fresh support, the EUR/USD will then collapse more significantly as investors finally realize the gravity of the situation and the impossibility of recovery without an agreement from the Germans.
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