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HSBC’s monthly manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.3 on a 100-point scale, up from a preliminary “flash” reading of 49.1, and a full point higher than March’s 48.3 print.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-factory-data-show-slower-cooling-hsbc-2012-05-02
It is not often that we see a simultaneous rally in the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to its highest level since December 2007 today while the S&P 500 rose to a more modest 3 week high. The rallies were sparked by better than expected U.S. data and gains in banking stocks. Normally good U.S. data is more positive for risk than for the U.S. dollar but with the Fed keeping investors guessing about another round of Quantitative Easing, the latest manufacturing sector reported alleviated some concerns about a slower U.S. recovery. We are skeptical of course because the ISM reading conflicts with regional data. Nonetheless the data is good and has provided support for the dollar as investors reconsider their QE3 positions.
http://www.fx360.com/?et_cid=21317443&et_rid=wallstreet1928@gmail.com
- Germany Bunds allow safe-haven flows to stay in euros
- Central bank reserve diversification
- Options players
- European bank deleveraging
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/05/01/whats-behind-the-euros-resilience/
Chinese PMI numbers scheduled for release this evening along with the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy announcement. Two major central banks have monetary policy meetings this week and both are expected to be cautious about the outlook for the global economy. There is a good chance the ECB will talk about the possibility of additional stimulus (rate cut or LTRO).
http://www.fx360.com/?et_cid=21311815&et_rid=wallstreet1928@gmail.com
Stock markets in China and Japan are closed today. Hang Seng +1.1%.
CANTOR INDEX see modest rally re opening - FTSE +6, DAX +13, CAC unch
The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEARCA:UUP) has a clear head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Head and shoulders patterns are bearish in nature and usually mean more downside for that particular chart. This pattern has triggered on the UUP which is the Dollar tracking ETF. Note the chart below. Because the Dollar trades inverse to the markets, the markets could see a little more upside in the coming days. This would be prior to the next fall that is on the horizon.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-stands-pat-sees-gradual-improvement-2012-04-25?siteid=bulletrss
With European bond yields continuing to decline and bond spreads throughout Europe compressing, the euro broke the top side of its 2.5 week range, rising to an intraday high of 1.3236 against the U.S. dollar. Despite weaker than expected U.S. durable goods, risk appetite is holding steady ahead of this afternoon's FOMC announcement.
http://www.fx360.com/?et_cid=21292831&et_rid=wallstreet1928@gmail.com
Most economists polled by Reuters think Britain will scrape through with gross domestic product growth of 0.1 percent or slightly more in the first three months of this year, but a sizeable minority see a slight contraction.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/uk-britain-economy-idUKBRE83N1GX20120425
The markets are floating around the flat line. All eyes are focused on the after market earnings release from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and the FOMC policy statement scheduled for Wednesday. This is keeping investors very nervous as worries of an iPhone sales miss is looming large. In addition, the markets are looking for Ben Bernanke to give a hint at future quantitative easing once again. The Wall Street thought process is that more problems in Europe and weaker U.S. economic data might push Bernanke into saying QE3 is a possibility again.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $137.19 +0.40 (+0.29%). Tomorrow will likely be a major up or down day as Apple earnings will be revealed and comments from the Federal Reserve will be given. Be ready for a wild ride.
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