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#China July Industrial Output +9.2% On Year Vs Market Expected +9.8%; +0.66% On Month [DJ]
#China July PPI -2.9% On Year; Market Expected -2.6% [DJ]
#China July CPI +1.8% On Year; Market Expected +1.7% [Dow Jones]
Here we go again, the Bernanke did not implement or hint that any new QE-2 is on the way. When you think about it, he really needs to save that bullet as inflation in India, China, Brazil, and the Middle East is already at dangerous levels. If the Bernanke crushed the U.S. Dollar Index by implementing another QE-3 these countries would be irate. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke did say that he will keep the fed funds rate at zero percent until late 2014. This news was basically already factored into the market.
Now all eyes will be on the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tomorrow. Last week, Super Mario gave a speech in which he said the ECB would do whatever is necessary to keep the Euro alive. He also said, “believe me it will be enough.” This statement by Super Mario sent the major stock indexes in Europe and the United States soaring higher. Tomorrow morning, the investing community is waiting to hear details about this genius plan to save the European Union.
Most traders and investors believe that the next plan by the ECB is to sell Euro-bonds. Germany is the one solvent country in the European Union and they seem to be very opposed to any issue of Euro-bonds. It is certainly not in Germany's best interest to have Euro-bonds issued as they will likely to be on the hook for the money needed to pay the interest on the debt. Some leading equities that will likely be volatile after tomorrow's ECB announcement include the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA:FXE), Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB), Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:SAN), and the iShares MSCI Europe Fincls Sector Index Fund (NASDAQ:EUFN) to name a few. It is safe to say that tomorrow's announcement will be a market moving event.
http://www.inthemoneystocks.com/free-services/rant-rave-blog
Stronger than expected U.S. ADP numbers reassured investors that the central bank won't say anything particular damaging to the U.S. dollar. In a few short hours, the Federal Reserve will deliver its monetary policy decision. Central bank meetings are traditionally one of the most market moving event risks for the forex market and based on the recent consolidation in FX, currency traders are waiting anxiously for a big announcement. Unfortunately they will need to keep on waiting because the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the size and scope of its Quantitative Easing program unchanged. There's even a good chance that the August FOMC statement will contain the same language as the June statement.
Kathy Lien
Managing Director
BK Asset Management
driven by Moody's view that the level of uncertainty about the outlook for the euro area, and the potential impact of plausible scenarios on member states, are no longer consistent with stable outlooks.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-puts-core-europe-on-downgrade-watch-2012-7#ixzz21Tw5qGDs
Many times in my career I have encountered new traders who believe they have the ability to master the markets after reading a book on trading, or even because they have obtained some form of degree. Most often the first question I ask them is; are you a fundamental trader? Fundamental traders are those who generally read a companies balance sheet, (example-EPS, PE, EBITDA, book value, etc.) or perhaps they are a technical trader which is someone that uses charts of past prices, patterns, and stock market cycles. More often then not the trader is unsure of a specific methodology and is typically dependent on someones opinion to invest or trade a stock, usually from a book or talk show. Within minutes, I realize that the new investor or trader is grasping onto a dream encompassing an optimistic hope mode.
Trading is one of the most rewarding, yet highly demanding ventures that an individual can pursue. Often I compare the markets to the world's largest arena that is filled with gladiators from ancient Roman times. There is over a billion shares traded everyday globally and the participants range from huge institutions such as insurance companies, commercial companies, hedge funds, mutual funds, banks, broker dealers, down to the individual investor. These participants have different types of goals and strategies that are being applied. Many institutions and traders have a longer time frame horizon and are looking for larger gains from the market. Then on the flip side there are many institutions and individual traders that are trading in a shorter time frame and looking for smaller gains. This is all part of the vast ocean of trading and investing. Yes, the big fish does eat the small fish, and the food chain theory is alive and well in the global trading world.
As most people, I'm a sports fan and enjoy watching a good athletic event. In the past few years the very popular sport of mixed martial arts has emerged to the forefront of athletic competition. This is a dynamic and fascinating sport that is very diverse and requires countless hours of physical training, studying, dieting, mental strength, and a true dedication that few can achieve. Recently I had the privilege of meeting a mixed martial arts competitor and I asked him how he got started in this sport? The fighter informed me that he was originally a boxer, later studied the martial art of Judo, and now he concentrates on the martial art of jujitsu. I then asked him if he learned the basics in Judo and Jujitsu and combined the techniques? Again, to my surprise he is a black belt (expert) in both martial arts. This means he is a black belt in two different forms of martial arts, as well as a professional boxer. The next statement was a something that I will never forget. He said, "I still need to continue to learn everyday and master more if I'm to continue to get better in the sport. I'm forever a student of mixed martial arts." Then it really hit me. This is what it takes to be successful in anything that you do and the reason why only a few are able to reach the elite level.
So what does it take to become a successful trader? This is a recipe that I'm certain will be different for each individual. It is truly an endless journey. The more you seek, the more you will find and there is surely more than one way to achieve your goal. In my personal journey to learn and understand the markets I have read over 200 books on the markets. Many of those books I have read two, three, and some four times. I have watched countless recorded trading videos, attended over 100 live seminars, and worked personally with some of the best traders alive. I have studied every bull and bear market in history and continue to learn and discover new market patterns and cycles every day. I know and believe that I still need to learn and master more as this is an ever changing arena. I am forever a student of the market. True market mastery is not a nine to five job where you punch a time clock. The real work usually begins when the market closes at 4:00pm ET. Every evening, I usually spend three to four hours reviewing charts and looking for setups for the next trading day. Reviewing charts on multiple time frames and performing multiple mathematical formulas is the norm.
In order to be successful in anything you must have a true passion. Trading is no different from a doctor, lawyer, accountant, or any other profession. A comedian I saw said it best, "a person with a job can't wait until 5:00pm for the day to end so he can go home. A person with a career doesn't even know its 5:00 pm and when at work he thinks he is home."
Trading is a skill that takes a life time to master. However, it is the best and most rewarding profession in the world with many perks. Be your own boss, make unlimited amounts of money and learn how to read people. After all, when you trade you are not trading stocks but people and their emotions. Learn the proper tools, keep learning, and make a fortune.
Post by: Nick Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
In front of the Senate’s Banking Committee today, Bernanke laid out his assessment of the economy including one bright spot (housing), and its challenges (employment, consumer confidence, manufacturing, and The Fiscal Cliff).
Unfortunately for the QE3-heads (kind of like Dead-heads or Parrot-heads), Bernanke gave no indication that the board was ready to pull the trigger, and that they will continue to “keep their options open” as they have been saying for the last month now.
As morning turned to afternoon though, the tide began to change. Suddenly, everything that had lost ground at the start of the Bernanke testimony turned around. The reasoning for this sudden change of heart boils down to the Q&A session the Senate had with Mr. Bernanke. After various questions about the Libor scandal, Bernanke was unable to avoid questions about additional easing, and was prodded to elaborate on what additional methods the Fed might use to stimulate the economy. Although the Fed may pass on QE3 this time around, they could pursue different measures to try and spur growth including cutting interest rates on excess reserves, verbal intervention including talking about future plans regarding rates and their balance sheet, or even using the discount window for additional lending purposes. Bernanke was careful not to tip his hand though,
With 3 back to back months of negative retail sales growth, we are looking at a very weak third quarter GDP that will show minimal improvement in growth. The Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 7.39 from 2.29 in July but this uptick in NY manufacturing conditions will be lost amongst the weak retail sales number.
While this morning's U.S. consumer spending report hardens the case for QE3, it does not change our view that nothing new will come from Bernanke on Tuesday and Wednesday, when he delivers his semiannual testimony.
