Here is my 15min chart of the Dow Jones. As you can see we got the final little push down to complete what I think would be the wave 5 of 1. Thus we are now waiting to see some bullish action for a wave 2 bounce.On the chart above you can see a possible short term count taking into acount today's action. We may have seen wave 1 and 2 of ( a ). This also looks to for the right shoulder of a possibler upside down head & shoulders pattern with the neckline indicated by the read line.A move above yesterday's (16/08/2010) high would look good for the bounce up.On the daily chart yesterdays action all came to making a doji looking candle which is indicative of a possible reversal.... however the elliott pattern suggests any such reversal would be short term and not very agressive.My target is the green box between 10470 and 10550. You can see that 10470 also now clusters with the 50% fib. retracement level, this is encouraging.My personal view is that we should bounce all week up untill options expiary on friday, after that the bullish pressure may just die out and heavy selling should return soon.
if e/j can bounce , then cheap yen will help japanese export stocks rally .............(and there is currently threat of intervention). If euro rally's it will help commodity rally and in turn help the DOW and FTSE 100
Ideal entry would be within the green box.
Stoploss above recent Dow highs (10720).
Prefered way to trade is enter half stakes within the green box and wait to enter the second half once wave 1 (where the lable is) is taken out to the downside.
the only way the US markets will rally is if asia rebounds and rally's considering the asian growth story has been causing the sell off in commods and commod currencies ...........all risk has come off the table with a strong YEN!!!
work out resistance on YEN is 50% of analysis
also NIKKEI @ critical support , < 9000 and the world markets are doomed !!
Yeah I agree. But that light volume will be perfect.
Light volume and wave 2 looks great! Because once wave 2 completes... wave 3 is next and that is usually the most agressive of the 5 waves in terms of movement.
So good swing trade opportunity may be around the corner :)
Comments
australian rate decision in 20mins
this will dictate direction
risk on or risk off
ej is rallying hear so a good signal
if e/j can bounce , then cheap yen will help japanese export stocks rally .............(and there is currently threat of intervention). If euro rally's it will help commodity rally and in turn help the DOW and FTSE 100
risk back on baby and you have your rally
hehe !!
Stoploss above recent Dow highs (10720).
Prefered way to trade is enter half stakes within the green box and wait to enter the second half once wave 1 (where the lable is) is taken out to the downside.
do you also look @ multiple TF's or just stick to 15 mins ?
daily chart indicates potential reversal based on long legged doji @ 50 MA , 61.8% fibonacci retrace & previous resistance = support
what would be your entry price, stop loss if triggered and target ?
work out resistance on YEN is 50% of analysis
also NIKKEI @ critical support , < 9000 and the world markets are doomed !!
Light volume and wave 2 looks great! Because once wave 2 completes... wave 3 is next and that is usually the most agressive of the 5 waves in terms of movement.
So good swing trade opportunity may be around the corner :)
considering Exxon mobil is the heavy weight ?
where do you see oil/euro going in the next few days or weeks ?
if you have the answer to that , then you have mastered the next move in this market ?
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